Joe’s Weather Blog: A more typical November pattern finally (SAT-11/19)
Good afternoon. Bright and clear across the region on this Saturday afternoon. Temperatures today are actually cooler than average (shocking) and today is the 1st time in about a month that highs have been below average in 28 days…since October 28th. So we really can’t complain. The good news is that the coldest part of this air mass, above the surface at least, is now moving away and temperatures will gradually moderate into Tuesday
Tonight: Clear and crisp with lows in the 20-25° range
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Some high clouds filtering out the sunshine. Highs 50-55°
Monday: Partly cloudy and milder. breezy as well with highs approaching 55-60°
Well through the magic of frontal timing yesterday…and despite the cold weather from daybreak onwards Friday…the high was still 68° on Friday. So through yesterday we’re running 9.5° above average for the month which is pretty impressive through the 18th. We’re tied for the 5th warmest 1st 18 days of November in KC weather history.
That monthly number will start coming back down to earth somewhat this week as a more typical November weather week (including temperatures) is at hand for the KC area.
The nice weather today is brought to you by a nice area of high pressure across the Plains states.
The latest satellite picture with the temperatures overlaid…shows the abundance of clear weather. Also notice the large area of white across the northern Plains and the Dakotas…that’s snow on the ground.
Meanwhile as I broaden out the view…
There is a storm off the WA/OR coast…one well off the NC coast and our cold front has pushed east to the eastern seaboard region.
The storm off the PAC NW coast is our next weather maker here.
Actually to be more specific it’s really a disturbance that is swinging around the southern periphery of that storm complex…something that you can somewhat notice by the “lumpier” clouds off the central CA coast. There is a little curl in there and that is a wave that will be moving into the western US tomorrow then move through the Desert SW on Monday night then swing through the KC region Tuesday PM into Tuesday night.
This storm should give us some rain…maybe even a rumble of thunder. We certainly could use the moisture. The last time we officially had 1/2″+ of rain was back in early October…so we’re due. I’m not sure we can get there (on a widespread basis) but maybe we can get 1/10-1/2″ of moisture from this.
The surface low will be developing in the western Plains states…then moving through KS during Tuesday. Surface moisture will be lacking for awhile but eventually will get drawn into the storm later in the day and Tuesday night.
The cold front is still well west of the area towards central KS by late Tuesday. The issue we may have though is the potential of “dry slotting” again Tuesday PM as the better low level moisture starts moving away Tuesday night. It’s not the greatest set-up and things, right now, don’t appear to be lining up the greatest for significant rainfall along the state line. Perhaps where some convection may try and fire, farther east of KC, rain amounts could be locally higher.
Tuesday’s highs are actually sort of tough to figure right now…because IF we can get some of the warmer air above us to come down…and IF we could get breaks in the clouds…temperatures could easily pop well into the 60s, if not 70s. The air above us is that warm. Clouds though should prevent that from happening. IF those clouds break up though…boom!
The air mass that moves in behind the TUE system…isn’t overly cold and not as cold as what we’re seeing out there now. So Wednesday may be cooler but should mostly be seasonable…clouds could be an issue for awhile. Right now Thanksgiving looks pretty good although there may be another disturbance coming through at night…with increasing clouds as the main threat for the afternoon hours. The EURO model is the most bullish in creating some rain overnight Thursday into FRI early AM…but right now I don’t want to get too involved with that…it will be a rather dynamic wave through working with very limited atmospheric moisture.
Overall though as we swing through Thanksgiving weekend…the pattern just looks more typical to me. No major ups or downs…let’s just call it seasonably cool.
I have no changes to my thoughts for the 1st 10 days of December at this point. Model data continues to point in my favor as well…
The cold may be there (that I’m most confident about)…the storms should be around too…now the question LOCALLY is do the 2 get together for winter weather here…or somewhere else. My favorite winter saying though…”The players will be on the field” is valid. Last year…the players never got to the ball park. This winter should be different.
Speaking of which…our Winter Forecast will be released starting Wednesday @ 5PM. Each of us will have a prediction then there will be the team average. I’ll write up a blog ahead of time concerning this on Wednesday with all our predictions. I may release it in the afternoon. I don’t know IF I can write up my usual long missive this year.
I will say I’m intrigued by several things this winter, despite what we’ve seen in the last 6 weeks. 1) I’m VERY interested in the Arctic Oscillation (AO). It’s been negative (except for the last week or so) since essentially early October. During the winter that can correlate to colder weather for the US. 2) While the snow season has been slow to start in the US…across the hemisphere as a whole…it’s actually doing pretty good. Granted a lot of this has been shoved on the other side of the world…and that needs to change…but what I’m seeing into early DEC may help that cause in the US. I would like to see Canada (especially southern and central) getting more snow though. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) hasn’t really done a lot…it hasn’t followed the AO trends for the last 6 weeks and has been mostly positive since early October. The two need to work more in concert with each other for us have a lot of faith in the indices together. There have been winters int eh past where these indices haven’t worked out for us locally. Just because they are – or + together doesn’t lock in a particular weather regime in the Plains…perhaps more so towards the eastern seaboard and New England.
OK those are some initial thoughts. Our feature photo is from Nicole Tamborello.