Joe’s Weather Blog: It’s a 2 blog day! Weather 1st then winter forecast later (WED-11/23)

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The 2016-17 Winter Forecast weather blog will be coming out THIS afternoon. Probably by 4PM or so. There will be no Thanksgiving blog tomorrow. So today is a 2 for 1 day with blogs. I’m still sweating my total snow forecast…and have debated about making last minute adjustments. More on that later today though. Staring at the weather maps long enough I could convince myself one way or the other of several outcomes I think.

Forecast:

Today: Cloudy and chilly with temperatures holding steady in the 40s

Tonight: Cloudy and chilly with steady temperatures in the 30s

Thanksgiving: Cloudy to start with some afternoon breaks likely. Highs near 50°

Friday: Partly cloudy and seasonable with highs around 50°

Discussion:

The morning satellite picture is telling. A dense and low overcast (about 1000′ off the ground) is widespread through the region. I mentioned yesterday how the moisture may get trapped here today and that appears to be the case, at least for now.

This picture will update through the day…since it’s a visible shot…tonight IF you read the blog…it will be black.

The rain from this transition was meager for many. There was some good soaking rains though across NW MO and NE KS

capture

Doppler indicated rain totals from yesterday

Amounts locally though were paltry. I wasn’t expecting much…but was hopeful we could do a bit better than what we got which was basically under 1/10″ or so,

The morning weather map (temperatures are in RED) show the colder air sweeping into the area.

The surface low is towards central MO this morning and will move farther away today.

Due to the timing of the cold front…we actually had another 12AM high of 57°, which will go into the books as the high for the day. The front came through just after 2AM @ KCI sending temperatures down 7° in 1 hour.

With that going on though…our temperatures are still 8° above average for November.

capture

Warmest Novembers through the 22nd

We are certainly not alone…the anomalies are maxed across the upper Midwest.

The lack of moisture is an developing issue but nothing too serious at this point…and it appears the next several weeks wil feature some stronger storms in the Plains states. The map below shows the anomalies and there is a lot of oranges and reds and pinks on that map…showing the deficits.

Meanwhile down in the tropics…a late season hurricane has formed. It’s name is Otto.

The storm will come ashore near the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border

Interesting to note that when it goes back offshore…on the Pacific side it will maintain it’s name. This has actually happened before…more than a dozen times as a matter of fact. It was a hurricane yesterday and while downgraded to a tropical storm this morning…it may perk back up before landfall.

This area doesn’t see tropical storms/hurricanes often. As a matter of fact IF Otto comes ashore in Costa Rica…there are no records (going back 174 years) of that happening in the past.

OK that’s it for this morning’s blog. The Winter Forecast blog comes out this afternoon.

 

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