Stay weather aware Thursday

Joe’s Weather Blog: Any snow coming to start December? (SAT-11/26)

This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.

Well the Winter Forecast for 2016-17 is in online now in blog format. Feel free to catch up when you get the chance. Today though is beautiful. The breeze has picked up a little today and will continue to increase overnight and Sunday IF there would be a lot of sunshine Sunday…we’d probably have wind gusts to almost 45 MPH…but clouds and the threat of showers will keep that from happening. It will be a windy and mild finish to the weekend though.

Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear and breezy. Lows in the 40s

Sunday: Cloudy, windy and mild with highs well into the 50s. Shower chances will be increasing in the afternoon. Winds will be 25-35 mph in gusts. It won’t rain al day so you may be able to dodge the drops for awhile

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny as the morning moves along, breezy and nice! Highs should be near 60-65°

Discussion:

A nice Saturday afternoon around the region today. Some areas this morning started with some dense fog…towards the Lakes region in particular. Didn’t see any reports of icy bridges or overpasses though. We’re coming to that time of the year now as the nights are getting colder.

The satellite picture this afternoon shows a few things to point out. 1) would be the nice weather in the area today. Temperatures as of the noon hour are now into the 50s. 2) would be the moisture down towards TX that will zip towards the area overnight and move through tomorrow. Stronger south winds above the ground tonight will take that moisture quickly northwards. 3) you can see the leftover low clouds from the fog this morning south of I-44. As we progress into winter, despite the sunshine (which is getting weaker by the week) light wind regimes keeps the air from getting stirred up. This keeps the low clouds hanging around for longer amounts of time.

The Noon surface map (temperatures are in RED) shows that we’re now comfortably in the 50s…with some almost 60° temperatures towards our SW.

 

Also notice the dew points in green towards TX. Those higher dew points will be moving northwards into our region tomorrow morning. So the moisture at the surface and aloft (int the form of clouds) will be increasing quickly in the AM Sunday.

Now we need to get that moisture into upwards motion to create precipitation. That will happen somewhat tomorrow as the morning goes along…however the better rains tomorrow may be more towards the north of KC metro area. Why? Well as the moisture is streaming in a wave will be moving into through the Plains states. That wave now is off the coast of southern CA. You can see it with the water vapor loop…and there is a tap of subtropical moisture as well feeding northeastwards through the Desert SW.

That wave, isn’t really that strong. By tomorrow morning it should be into the 4 corners region then weaken even more through central NE tomorrow evening. The better”lift” of the air above us will be moving towards the State Line area near lunch Sunday and perhaps be better focused towards evening across IA. The rains that we get locally may not amount to all that much…so that’s why I think we’ll have more of a “showery” type of afternoon tomorrow. Some getting wet…others staying gray and windy.

Speaking of the wind…a few thousand feet off the ground the winds will be cranking at close to 60 MPH. Those strong winds will be realized on the ground (not as strong though) and gusts to 40 MPH Sunday wouldn’t surprise me. The fallen leaves will be flying all over the place.

The storm will start to intensify Monday across the northern Plains and essentially stall and wallow through the upper Midwest for the week as a whole. This will allow cold air to start draining southwards as the week moves along and the air mass will get progressively colder starting Tuesday. The cold air though won’t be here on Monday. There is the potential for some rather warm weather on Monday depending on the cloud cover situation. 60s though look likely because we’ll be starting with temperatures near 50° Monday morning.

Notice by Wednesday morning the air aloft (around 5000′) compared to average is rather cool. Nothing brutal but certainly a return to average or perhaps slightly below average temperatures later in the week.

ecm_t850_anom_west_5

5000′ temperature anomalies in °C. Those green areas show temperatures above us some 20° F below average. The lack of snow and sunshine should help to modify that though on the ground.

This cold weather will be around from Wednesday into the weekend…so we’ll be starting the month of December with below average temperatures.

Now about that snow situation.

About 10 days ago…I was encouraged by what I was seeing for the 1st 10-15 days of December. The colder weather scenario is going to play out (mostly) but will that cold air go to waste? At this point I’m really not too excited by any frozen precipitation through, at least, next weekend.

Beyond that though…there may be a storm in play. Will  we have the cold air around though by the time that storm can give us something or will we be warming up again? Odds are we may be losing the cold air for a few days as the next storm comes towards us from the SW part of the country after the 5th of December. Overall though the pattern is chilly for the 1st half of December I think.

It should be noted that there will be some bitterly cold air setting up in western Canada in the longer term…towards the 5-10th of December.

gefs_t850a_5d_noram_65

These are the GFS ensembles…when the ensembles are this cold across SW Canada…it’s a cold air mass.

Granted this is the GFS…but I think it’s got a clue with the idea at least.

gfs_t2m_a_f_wcan_49

Corresponding surface forecast anomalies for the 8th. That is some cold air up there (the map shows how far below average the temperatures may be)

I’d be surprised if we didn’t at least dabble in some of the colder weather towards the 9-12th or so.

So at least we’re going to have some cold weather off and on for the 1st half of December…that is markedly different than last December when temperatures for the month were crazy mild.

 

We finished December of 2015 more than 8° above average. It was our 7th warmest December in KC weather history

Speaking of which…at least though yesterday this is the 6th warmest November in KC weather history.

capture

Warmest Novembers through the 25th

Our feature photo of the day is from  Connie Gibson…on the road along 50 highway this morning in the fog.

capture

Joe

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