Joe’s Weather Blog: A Monday surge then a slow chill (SUN-1/29)

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Today is turning brighter by the minute an temperatures are responding rather nicely. already as of 1PM we’re into the mid 40s and it appears we should nudge near 50° during the afternoon. That’s warmer than I thought from yesterday due to my cloud cover expectations…we’re getting more sunshine and we deserve it!

Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy…then clearing towards daybreak. Lows in the 30s

Monday: Spring fever weather! It will be cool in the morning though…and the best warmth will wait till lunch or afterwards but highs potential could pop into the 60° range…with some upside maybe in spots if we can stir the wind a bit more

Tuesday: Despite a front coming through…highs should be near or above 50°

Wednesday: Chillier but seasonable with highs near 40°

Discussion:

Short blog today because aside from the temperatures…there isn’t much to talk about for the work week. I’m watching a system for next Saturday…aside from that…not much else happening.

The temperatures will be the big story tomorrow. With enough wind to stir the air, despite a cool start (still about 5-10° above average though) we should be in good shape. There may be a period of clouds in the morning sometime but I like where we’ll end up in the afternoon.

The model data will typically underestimate the way the atmosphere will “mix” out. This means that the warmer air just above the surface is under-forecast to work it’s way to the ground due to the wind. So let’s go up about 3000′ and see the warm air above us…via the GFS. This would be for 6PM Monday.

capture

Temperatures here are in °C…so 10°C = 50°F at around 3000′

So with the winds around 15-25 MPH…we take that warm air and bring it to the surface. With the air being dry and sunshine…that air will then compress and heat up. It’s a bit more complicated than that…but this type of air mass would yield highs near 60°. I’ve been carrying 56-58° now for what seems like forever and will nudge it up a bit more tonight I think.

Temperatures at that level on Tuesday drop about 6°C or about 12°F…and with lighter winds I’m expecting highs to be closer to 50°..still about 10° above average. Not a bad finish for the month. That will be 22 days of above average temperatures in January.

The slow creep down will continue into Wednesday and especially into Thursday. Highs Thursday may struggle to get to 35° (if that).

OK that’s it for today…really not a lot going on for me to write about today…so it’s a short blog for you. I may try and cobble together a ‘clean off my desk” blog for tomorrow.

Our feature photo comes from Allen Robertson down in Coffey County, KS.

capture

Joe

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