Joe’s Weather Blog: Blizzard east…flooding west…nothing middle (THU-2/9)

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The sun has been shining on this Thursday afternoon…and after morning lows in the 10-15° range we’ve rebounded into the 30-35° range. One wonders if that’s the coldest air for the rest of the month. Do you realize that the last time we had more than a trace of snow was back on January 5th? The snow drought in KC is real…and there aren’t any signs of it changing any time in the next 10 days really. Back east there is an ongoing blizzard this afternoon with perhaps something even bigger towards New England next Monday…

Forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies and cool but not as cold. Lows in the 30° range although there will be 20s out there towards 12AM before temperatures steady out or rise towards daybreak.

Friday: Mostly sunny, windy and warmer with highs approaching 60°. Some upside to that with enough wind. Wind gusts through lunch may be 25-35+ MPH. The winds may drop off a bit as the afternoon moves along.

Saturday: Tougher forecast because of the placement of fronts in the area. Highest confidence of near 65° weather is south of the Metro…highest confidence of 50°-ish weather is north of KC….that places the metro in the middle and creates a conundrum. My bet is colder for KC as cold air almost always wins the fight in FEB in the Plains. Should this play out…clouds and perhaps even some misty weather is possible in the KC area on Saturday.

Sunday: Variable clouds with perhaps a few scattered showers…highs 40-45°

Discussion:

The weather excitement is in teh NE part of the country and out west. A raging blizzard with hundreds of lightning strikes (thundersnow reports) is ongoing and pushing through New England.

Snow totals are in excess of 18″ in spots. It was snowing at 2-3″+ per hour in areas of the northeast. This is all after record high temperatures across the NE part of the country yesterday.

capture

Highs yesterday

Needless to say…wowza about the weather there today! 1000s of flights have been cancelled in the past 24 hours…and it will take all night into tomorrow to recover.

For snow lovers…we look from afar at the pictures!

I just want one snowstorm…then it can be 70° for the rest of the year. From the looks of things this may be as close as I get for awhile…looking at it from space!

Meanwhile across the western part of the country the rains and snows continue. There has been so much rain and melted snow that reservoirs are releasing water so that they don’t over-top dams. This has become an issue though…because the spillways, where the water flows after being released are breaking because of landslides from all the rain.

See that enlarging crevice…that’s a problem

Now notice what happens (above) when there is a release of water into the spillway.

BREAKING @ 3:40PM

capture

With all the snow…and all the rain…flooding is an issue in the Tahoe area.

Meanwhile the wet get wetter in the next 7 days…

and the dry…get drier.

Our forecast conundrum is on Saturday and I had my concerns yesterday about this and today those concerns were acted on. A general rule I follow in the winter season is unless you have screaming warm winds blowing…cold air usually wins and moves farther south that what models think. It’s been that case this week…and I think on Saturday it may be the case again. There are various model solutions pertaining to the warmth and it’s a BIG bust potential forecast…but I see this as a colder and grayer forecast than others…especially from KC proper and northwards as a front will be straddling the region with south winds on the south side of that front bringing in low level moisture into the cooler air from about KC north. That too me at least, is a recipe for clouds and mist/drizzle. My fear is that for days there were ideas of really warm weather to start the weekend…and that folks are going to say what happened to the warm weather you said was going to happen. Comes with the territory but consider this a 48 hour heads up that it may be much chillier than what some may think.

Now should that front be several counties farther north…we’ll be in business and IF there were strong winds Friday night I’d be less pessimistic, but after a windy Friday…the winds will be dropping off…as moisture streams northwards. There will also be a surface low traveling towards the south of the area…enhancing a more NE or ENE wind wind flow from KC northwards…I don’t like that.

I hope I’m wrong! I’d rather be wrong in this respect than promising folks near 70° weather and seeing that turn into near 50° weather.

Meanwhile…that appears to be the main issue for the forecast over the weekend.

Finally a reminder about the eclipse Friday night…here is more information.

Hopefully we’ll have clear skies…look after sunset towards the moon. It will be a penumbral eclipse  which means it will look more “faded” than a umbral or total eclipse. The difference is that the earth is NOT totally blocking the suns light from hitting the moon…only partially. It peaks around 6″45 PM but you’ll notice perhaps the more faded look to the moon for a couple of additional hours.

Our feature photo comes from Art White…nice sunset shot from the other day down towards Pleasant Hill.

capture

Joe

 

 

 

 

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