Joe’s Weather Blog: VERY active next 10+ days (TUE-3/21)

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Late March into April can be very busy around this area. With all the warmth we’ve seen and the accelerated spring weather that has been with us for weeks now…the more or less typical spring rains may happen a bit earlier than average this season in the region. We really need it. While the devastating fire yesterday isn’t the fault of the dry weather…it’s spread to other locations wasn’t perhaps wasn’t helped by the dry conditions that have developed in the last couple of months. Those wood shingles I’m sure were dry as a bone and that was potentially an issue in all this unfortunately. To immediately equate the two though is a bit of a stretch in my opinion. IF the year was very wet…and we would’ve had a 5 day dry spell…odds are the same thing might have happened. It’ll be interesting to see where the investigation goes and IF this was a factor (the dry winter).


Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and cooler with highs in the 60s (still above average). There may be a few scattered showers, especially on the MO side SE of KC.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and colder with lows in the 30s. Freezing temperatures are possible.

Wednesday: Increasing clouds and chilly with high around 50-55°. There may be some light rain or drizzle at times as well

Thursday: Sprinkles are possible at times. Breezy and cloudy/warmer again with highs in the 70s potentially IF we get enough sunshine


Discussion:

The title of the blog is appropriate I think as the Plains will be seeing some active weather including decent upper level systems with occasionally strong surface storms developing. This has to create rain. It’s now a matter of how do we fit into things. Will we constantly get missed by the heavier rains…will we again be on the short side of the rainfall scenarios? There may be times we do miss out on the worst rains (in a sense that means missing out on the worst severe weather play-outs as well) but we should get some decent moisture in the end.

This morning when looking at the model guidance you can just see how we’re setting up for moisture. Storms will come every few days it appears and while there will be obvious specific questions about locations and set-ups that can’t be resolved at this point for next week…it does appear as though we’re due for some decent rains.

 

The map above shows the storms starting to line up or the systems that will create impulses that should move through the Plains states mostly. Some of these upper level systems may create multiple storm systems to move through…especially the systems way out in the Pacific Ocean right now including some of the energy out towards Asia this morning. These systems in the Pacific will undergo various changes as the traverse the ocean and get caught up in the flow…but the 1-4 above represent and approximation of the areas that will impacting the Plains I think down the road over the next 10 days or so

So what we have is the set-ups. The devil is in the details and storm #1, off the west coast will energize a very strong surface storm on Friday in the western Plains…that will weaken somewhat as it moves towards the KC region. This storm will create showers and maybe some thunder storms locally on Friday…but at this point the heavier rains from storm #1 may be more towards the southern part of the country and towards the SE of KC proper. This is where there may be some stronger>severe storms setting up.

Right now it appears storm #1 off the west coast..

will create the best chance of severe weather on Friday in the western Plains and not the KC area.

Then on Saturday that risk of severe weather will be down towards the south of the region.

 

Here is the EURO forecast for rainfall through Sunday…the reason why the areas towards central and southern MO are more in line for the heaviest rain…is that they get the stronger thunderstorms with this compared to us it appears. I wouldn’t be surprised IF that severe risk in the above map for Saturday gets pulled farther north and or northeast over the next couple of days

So storm #1 will hopefully give us about 1/10″-1/2″ or so of moisture between Friday and Saturday. The map above is for the next 5 days worth of rain.

Storm #2 will quickly be on it’s tail…somewhat problematic in a sense because storm #1 will sweep the better moisture to the south of the region so it will be a race to see IF it can get sucked back up into the area  by late Sunday into Monday AM. Then storm #3 would be do on Tuesday.

You can see though how the fast movement of the systems can complicate the rain amounts locally. IF things were progressing a bit slower (let’s say a day or so) we’d get a better moisture return. All that said though…storm #2 and 3 map be strong enough on their own to generate 1″+ of rainfall, especially IF there are thunderstorms with the set-ups. It’s certainly within the realm of possibility that there could be timing changes with any of those storms…3-4 especially that allow for better rain totals locally.

The GFS model over the next 16 days actually cranks out 3-5″ of rain up and down the state line.

I wanted to show you the above map because while 3-5″ could be a stretch for us…1-3″ isn’t in my opinion though through 4/5. I also wanted to show you this map because of this.

24% of the wheat crop is right now rated as “poor” or “very poor”. The majority is “fair” to “good+” which is encouraging BUT a lack of moisture over the next 10+ days won’t be a good thing necessarily.

OK that’s it for today. Our feature photo comes from Todd A Surprise in Piper, KS

I’m off for a few days so the blogs will be a bit more infrequent but I should get another one out tomorrow.

Joe

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