Joe’s Weather Blog: Warmth and winds kick in (FRI-4/7)

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Good afternoon…just about perfect out there right now with bright sunshine, a nice breeze and delightful temperatures. Average highs for this time of the year are in the 63° and as I type this blog…the 2PM temperature is 62°. Pretty darn nice out there! There will be changes for the weekend including much warmer air and gustier winds moving through the Plains and that will be very noticeable starting Saturday.


Forecast:

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies, windy and warmer with highs well into the 70s. Winds will be gusty at 15-25 MPH.

Saturday night: Mild with 20-30 MPH gusts possible and lows in the 60s

Sunday: Variable clouds, windy and warm. Storm chances increase after 5PM or so. Highs may approach 75-80° in areas. Winds will be 25-40 MPH

Monday (Opening Day): Breezy and mild weather with quite a bit of sunshine. Temperatures in the afternoon will be around 65-70° for 1st pitch.


Discussion:

Aside from some field burning going on on the KS side…it’s a pretty quiet day as the satellite picture.

Some of those high clouds will be with us towards sunset so it may be a pretty one out there.

Speaking of which…did you know there is a website dedicated to sunrise and sunset weather. As we all know…if you get the right combination of cloud cover…like what we saw this morning for example…you can get some picturesque sunrises/sets. Anyway the website is sunsetwx.com. Here is what they’re saying for this evening around 8PM…the sun sets at 7:49 today. This month…look for the images timed out for 01Z.

via sunsetwx.com. The brighter colors indicate the more “vivid” sunset potential

Anyway if you’re into sunrises/sets (I’m more into the “sets”) it’s a fun website to look at and if you’re a photographer it can be helpful.

From a weather standpoint…no significant changes are needed to what I wrote about yesterday. There are some subtle differences in the model data today with one model, in particular, lacking the potential of storms later Sunday. My feeling is that model (the NAM model) is overly soupy in the bottom few thousand feet of the atmosphere. I think what it’s doing is being too aggressive with the low level cloud cover and keeping temperatures too cool. As a result it maintains a rather decent cap for most of the day around here preventing convection from firing.

Our other model data isn’t as robust with this low level moisture but still shows at least some. So it will need to be monitored. The reason why this is important is that a lot of cloud cover will reduce the instability, whereas more sunshine obviously gets things warmer. The warmer we are the more unstable we get. There will be a front meandering towards the area later in the day…so with that + heat + moisture…we should have at least some of the ingredients around for at least some scattered storms later in the day. The window seems to be roughly 5PM-10PM or so before things would move away from the area.

The Storm Predication Center is watching the situation. Hail and winds would be the main threat with anything that pops later in the day. We are in a “slight” risk for severe storms. Per the SPC “

I’m not expecting a ton of rain from this set-up. Whatever forms will be moving rather quickly towards the ENE at close to 45+ MPH and there may not be a whole ton of coverage of the noteworthy rains.

Monday and Tuesday look to be dry, as does most of Wednesday before the next front heads towards the area with the next chance of rain overnight Wednesday. That doesn’t look overly impressive either right now.

So to a certain extent…next week looks rather pleasant overall with temperatures trending above average overall.

Our feature photo comes from Misty Jones who’s been doing some real nice photography. It was taken at the Parkville Nature Sanctuary.

Joe

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