Joe’s Weather Blog: Watching Saturday night storms (FRI-4/14)
Skies are clearing out somewhat in the area late this afternoon and the temperatures are starting to warm back up again. Rainfall amounts from the morning bout ranged from 1/10-1/2″ of moisture. It was needed…and more may be coming before the weekend is done.
Tonight: Partly cloudy and becoming windy with lows near 60°
Saturday: Clouds and sun. There is a small chance of some scattered showers zipping through before lunch. Odds favor towards the NW of KC at this point. Warmer and more humid with S/SW winds of 20-30 MPH. Highs near 80°
Saturday night: Storm chances increase from the NW to the SE into the morning hours. Some storms may be severe…Highest risk appears to be in NW MO and NE KS before 10PM. For the metro the storms may not really arrive till later in the evening…the risk, if there is any severe weather would be high winds (60 MPH) and perhaps some 1″ hail. The timing of that for KC proper appears to be in the 9PM-3AM range.
Sunday: Variable AM clouds then more PM sunshine. Cooler with highs closer to 70°. We’ll need to watch for renewed thunderstorm development later in the evening depending on the final resting place of the cold front coming through in the wee hours of the morning
At this point the most interesting aspect of the weather over the next few days is what happens Saturday night. I wrote a blog yesterday detailing the thoughts for the weekend and those ideas haven’t changed all that much
The question is how strong will the storms be when they arrive into the KC area. The timing perhaps has slowed down a bit. The later into the evening we get tomorrow odds are the less of a risk of severe weather being a big issue in the KC metro area. I still think the bigger chance of stronger storms (more locally) resides more towards N MO into NE KS and points northwards. Here are today’s thoughts from the SPC.
We are in a slight risk of severe storms. That seems about right…but there are arguments that can be made that would point to a lessened risk of “severe” storms locally.
- The timing of the event. The later into the evening we go…the weaker the storms may be in the KC area. Farther north…where there may be a better combination of instability and timing…the risk should be higher.
- Winds aloft…25-40 MPH winds from the mid-evening hours onwards is NOT overly exciting to me. Early Sunday AM the winds are even lighter. This tells me that the risk of more organized “severe” storms would be tougher to maintain locally
- Aside from the cold front itself…there is no surface low moving along the frontal path to help “enhance” any lift in the atmosphere. We’re relying on the front itself (which sometimes is good enough).
- A mid-level cap may develop as the overnight moves along on Saturday. Storms can still occur with this…but it’s a cautionary flag. Especially IF we’re waiting for storms after 12AM.
So there are negatives to severe weather for Saturday night. There are some positives…
- There will be a cold front coming through…have to respect that in April.
- The surface dew points should be around 60°…higher in NW/N MO. That needs to be respected as well.
- There will be instability present. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values will be 1000+. That’s enough to help the cause
So much like this past Sunday…it’s a bit of a storm conundrum again for the local area…less so for northern MO and NE KS.
We’ll keep an eye on it for you…there is no 5PM newscast Saturday night.
The @PeopleOfCowtown have sent in today’s featured photo…