Joe’s Weather Blog: Good weekend…rainier late week (SAT-4/22)

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Our weather is actually turning out rather pleasant this weekend. Here’s a funny story for you…yesterday I was at Sams Club poking around and there was a couple with their two kids within earshot. The man was on the phone and for quite some time was telling whoever he was talking too about all the rain that was in the forecast for today. Obviously I knew that wasn’t going to happen but I didn’t want to speak up and tell him the actual situation…anyway this went on for what seemed to me to be more than a typical length of time…he must’ve said that it was going to rain all day long about 10 times to whomever he was talking too. Finally I spoke up…told him everything would be fine…he relayed that to the person he was talking too…and I thought to myself “job well done”. The kicker is…I don’t think that person knew who I was at all…not a clue.


Forecast:

Tonight: Clear and chilly with lows dipping into the upper 30s for some along with the potential of some patchy frost in the outlying areas.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and nice with highs around 70°

Monday: Windy and warmer with sunny skies. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds of 20-30 MPH


Discussion:

Some nice weather out there as the storm, which we figured would drop the better rains well south of KC…did indeed do that. Rain amounts towards S MO were easily over 2″ in many areas and there was flash flooding down in southern MO.

The midday satellite picture shows the clearing spreading from the north to the south this afternoon. It’s pretty nice in KC right now…farther south still lots of clouds.

By the way…I don’t think I’ve posted this information before but here is a link to the new satellite pictures we’re receiving from the GOES 16 satellite. The resolution is better…they’re updated every 5 minutes…and in some cases every minute(!) and you can see lots of things not easily seen before. For example, depending on when you read the blog today…you may notice a small little “eddy” (swirl) in NW MO…just spinning around harmlessly…interesting though.

Here is the link…notice all the sectors available.

Moving on…

Not much going on Sunday or Monday. There will be an important front though moving into the region Tuesday night. That front has long term impacts on the weather in the region towards the end of the week. Ahead of the front the winds will get cranked up again on Monday and Tuesday. South winds of 25-35 MPH are possible. The cold front will be off towards the west of here in the afternoon Tuesday. Here is the forecast map for 1PM Tuesday from the NAM model.

We should get thunderstorms with that scenario BUT…there is going to be another strong cap building into the region on Tuesday. This again may limit the storm potential. The cap should start to weaken somewhat towards evening but by then I’m not sure how unstable we’ll be. I may insert an evening chance of storms in the forecast update tonight at 5PM just to be on the safe side.

The reason why I mentioned that front was important is because where that front stalls…perhaps in southern MO…it may act as a focus mechanism for storms later in the week as a rather deep trough set’s up in the SW part of the US and the western Plains THU>SAT.

I don’t want to get too involved with that yet…we’ll deal with that more next week…but there is a rather significant set-up for storms/flooding rains(!)/severe weather later in the week. The issue from about a week away though is where will this be maximized. Will it be near the I-35 corridor region…will be it farther south towards S MO where they’re dealing with saturated grounds now…and are more vulnerable to flooding rains? This can’t be answered yet…BUT when I see this type of rainfall total forecast off the GFS model…it’s concerning.

There are some 10+” maxes in central MO. Does that mean this is right…NO! I does show potential and mu guess is that this axis of flooding rains will shift north and south over the coming days. The front MAY waffle around for a few days…and according to the GFS model…we stay on the colder side of the front…now should that front come farther north…we get more into the mix (and mess) of what could happen. This is VERY much on the table for later next week. So we need to pay attention to the front’s location.

There are significant differences just in the GFS model and it’s various other ensemble runs in the in the position of the surface low…for example the GFS operation model has the surface low towards Midland, TX next FRI evening.

The front in the above model is draped just north of the I-44 corridor in central MO.

Now note the various ensemble members…

Most of the members of the model…which are then averaged out…actually have the surface low MUCH farther north…to a certain extent then the front is NOT by the I-44 corridor but closer to the I-70 corridor…or even farther north

 

So the bottom line is to be aware of the potential of changes in the heaviest rainfall potential and as a connection the added higher chances of severe weather.

OK that’s enough for today…our feature photo comes from Sandra Summers-Hanaway from Odessa, MO

Not sure about a blog on Sunday…we’ll see.

Joe

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1 Comment

  • Rockdoc

    Another great blog Joe! I’ve been looking at Cape values and most of the higher values tend to be in Oklahoma and central-east Texas. Latest GFS as of 18z Saturday has cooler temps in our area. This suggests we may be out of the woods for severe weather. Still showing significant rain thru southern-central Missouri back into Oklahoma. As you indicated, we shall see. The models are having issues with this system. I suspect we won’t know the surface setup until Wednesday-Thursday!