Joe’s Weather Blog: Not exactly shorts weather for awhile (WED-4/26)

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Good morning…well I think you can tell a rather stout cold front has moved through the area. Rain last night was welcome and severe weather was minimal for areas SE of KC. There were a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings but I don’t think anyone had much more than pea sized hail. There were some locally heavy rains out there…some areas with over 1″ but most well under that. Today has started and will finish chilly…some 20+ degrees cooler than yesterday as expected.


Forecast:

Today: Clouds with some showers around and cool with highs struggling in the 40s to near 50°

Tonight: Clearing out a bit and cold with lows dropping into the mid-upper 30s. There may be some frost out there (perhaps more widespread than this past weekend) and it will be colder in NW MO and NE KS that may see temperatures drop to near 30-32°

Thursday: Increasing clouds and cool with highs approaching 60°

Thursday night: Showers possible with lows in the 40s

Friday: Cloudy and cool with a few showers in the AM…then gray in the PM…highs closer to 60° or the lower 60s


Discussion:

Let’s start with this…the weekend right now looks not nice. Rainy on Saturday, at times, and chilly all weekend where 50° highs could be a push. Sunday may be the drier of the two days but still there’s a chance of rain…but it may be rather gray and breezy to add more of a chill to the air.

As I mentioned a rather decent for April cold front has come across the region overnight. That’s what helped trigger off the non-severe local convection and rain that parts of the area saw overnight. There were some locally heavy downpours in the activity that affected some areas, but left many farther north with nothing in the rain gauge.

Over the past 24 hours…through this morning at least…we’re running almost 20° colder…(via Penn State)

So we’re exchanged a warm air mass with a colder one…

Doppler indicated rain totals aren’t exactly “beefy”…

Most areas in the KC metro had between 1/10-1/2″ of moisture.

The 8AM surface map, showing the temperatures in rED highlight where the cold front is now located…notice as well the colder air moving towards the area thanks to a stiff NW winds out there this morning.

As this front moves farther southwards…it will trigger more severe weather later today…well south of KC

The strongest potential for tornadoes will be well south of the KC region…down towards southern AR. Not a slam dunk though this year as there have been several times this month that things appear to be lining up and something happens that thankfully reduces the coverage and in some cases the intensity of the strongest storms.

There is a potent disturbance showing up nicely on the water vapor loop this morning…you can see it in the southern Plains region…notice as well the fast moving clouds towards the western US and into the eastern Pacific…this is going to be eventually the next big weather player for us as a new storm system will come from that fast moving jetstream and create another upper level storm in the Plains states.

So Thursday we’re mostly good…warm air will try and fight northwards at night…and may set off some showers as it does so into Friday morning. Then we may get another break on Friday afternoon.

It would be Friday that the upper level storm starts organizing in SE UT and then the upper level storm gets it’s act together towards New Mexico and starts coming out into the Plains. By Saturday night it’s near the TX Panhandle and on Sunday morning it’s near Wichita…then by late Sunday near Kirksville, MO.

Saturday looks to the the really wet day…then on Sunday we’ll be in the wrap around moisture, which may yield some lighter rains but will also allow temperatures to really stay cold for late April…some 25° below average in spots. Now granted this is the GFS model…but it’s got the right idea probably with the colder weather for Sunday. Here is a 1PM forecast snapshot of temperatures in the region Sunday.

Notice the warmth off towards St Louis and eastwards…that will probably translate into more severe weather the farther east you go into the mid Mississippi Valley area. IF the upper level storm deviates from it’s path and goes farther west…then the potential of us being warmer comes into play…right now that is doubtful.

Rainfall amounts locally look to be in the 1-3″ average range….here is the GFS forecast. You can see it’s trying to sniff out a dry slot of sorts near the KC area…with heavier totals north and well south of the area.

Our EURO model doesn’t do that as much…also notice the agreement for southern MO and parts of AR…this may be a big flood weekend down there.

Wet and cold…not exactly the way you want a Saturday to go. With the chilly weather the threat of severe storms is non-existent.

We’ll also need to watch for more frost next Monday morning as well with a chilly air mass in place. Next week will gradually moderate but still be on the “coolish” side.

The folks from @PeopleOfCowtown have the perfect picture to sum up the weather around these parts over the next 4 days or so…

Joe

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