Joe’s Weather Blog: Fall storms…and up and down temperatures (FRI-10/20)

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Good TGIF to you. Breezy and a bit more cloudy in the region this afternoon…but temperatures are still nicely above average and tomorrow (Saturday) will be another day with average temperatures well above average even with all the cloud cover expected. So far out of the 20 days this month…only 4 have been blow average in KC (KCI). Every other day has trended on the positive side except for one average day. We’re going to be a bit more all over the place over the next 10 days or so to finish the month.



Forecast:

Tonight: Variable clouds, breezy and mild for October with lows in the 60-65° range.

Saturday: Generally cloudy and windy. there will be some breaks in the clouds. There could be a few showers out there before 4PM but they won’t last long for any one place. Mild with highs in the low-mid 70s.. It will also “feel” a bit muggy by late October standards.

Saturday night: Storms chances increase, especially between 7PM-1AM. Some of the storms may have gusty winds connected to them. Some severe weather is possible (mainly 60+ MPH winds). Also locally heavy rains of 1-2+” is possible as well

Sunday: Clearing out and more seasonable with highs in the 60s



Discussion:

Not a lot has changed in the overall set-up for Saturday evening. The cold front should be working through the region from west to east after about 7PM or so. Storms are expected with the front…then should be moving pretty quickly and with the winds aloft in the 50-60 MPH range…some severe weather is possible. The main threats appear to be damaging straight line winds in excess of 60 MPH. Right now the set-up for tornadoes doesn’t look overly impressive. Like last week, once this line of storms comes fully together…and the cells aren’t independent anymore (which should happen quickly) the small risk will decrease. The only other thing I’ll watch is, like last week, the potential for some very small, spin-ups along the leading edge of the line tomorrow night. That risk appears low to me as well. It’s not zero however…and because the winds will be increasing quickly from the ground upwards (shear) it’s still worth watching. We are under a “slight” severe weather risk for later Saturday.

 

Another issue will be the potential of locally heavy rains. Our model data suggests the highest chance of something like this happening (over 1.5″) may be closer to the I-35 corridor and also towards the east and SE of the KC Metro.

Rain forecast via the hi-res NAM model through 7AM Sunday

The lower res NAM model has the same general idea right now…

Our other models are following suit as well…so it’s a higher confidence forecast that some get 1-3″ of rain.

The timing remains in the 7PM-11PM time frame for the heaviest weather in the KC Metro area.

Beyond that the main focus will be on the ups and downs in the temperatures.

It should be noted that the data today is becoming more supportive of stronger push of colder weather towards the end of next week. From Sunday through Wednesday we’ll be dealing with various opportunities for downsloping winds pushing temperatures up in some cases. When those downsloping winds occur however will play a role in how warm we get during the day and how cool we get at night. There should be a push of cooler weather on Tuesday and then a more significant dump of colder weather on Thursday>Saturday. There will be the potential of a freeze, even a hard freeze next weekend IF the EURO model is correct.

As a matter of fact the longer range trends for later next week…are rather reminiscent of Arctic plunges during the winter. Now the air up in Canada isn’t that terribly cold yet…but you take the SAME pattern forecast for late next week…you stick that jet stream configuration into DEC>FEB and that would be the recipe for some serious sub-zero cold weather in the KC region. Again that’s strictly based on the upper level flow…in late October with no snow on the ground up north and still enough sunshine the air can on;y get so cold.

If you’re in the gardener world however…take note of the changeable forecast for alter next week. The Lake Effect snow/rain machine may turn on as well in the Great Lakes region heading towards next weekend.

Let’s take a look at the temperature anomalies, up around 5000′ or so for the middle and end of next week. You can see the dump of cold Canadian air in the region better this way…again these are the forecast anomalies (the difference between the forecast and what is average).

Thursday AM the 26th…still holding on to warm air

Friday morning the 27th…those temperatures (at that level) are some 20-30° below average barreling through the Plains region

Saturday morning the 28th…we’re in that cold air mass in a big kind of way.

So let’s keep an eye on that increasing potential of at least some decently below average temperatures for later next week.

Also of note is that when there is a dump of colder weather into the Plains…there typically is rather warm weather (and windy weather too) across the western  part of the country. Record heat is possible next week in California and elsewhere…and with the wind…once again the fire risk will be on the increase.

Our feature photo comes from BrinskifromKC via Twitter…from Belton, MO.

Joe

 

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