Joe’s Weather Blog: Up and down we go…+ more wind (WED-12/13)

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Good morning…as I type this the winds aren’t too bad…but that is going to change as a wind shift moves through the region this afternoon…so expect the winds to gust to 30-35+ MPH or so. Clouds will be rapidly clearing out as well…at least for the afternoon. Beyond today…we just sort of keep doing what we’re doing…cooler Thursday…OK Friday…MUCH warmer Saturday…then chillier Sunday. Yes there will have to be more wind with these rapid fire changes. In the big picture for the next 7+ days…there are still no significant storms on the table. Still keeping an eye on likely nasty cold air for Christmas week at some point…and yes…there will be threats of snow…but the amounts are FAR from certain. So don’t believe the weather apps from this far out!



Forecast:

Tonight: High clouds increasing, then lower clouds. This may threaten the viewing of the Geminid meteor shower that is maxing out tonight and Thursday night.

Thursday: Variable clouds and chillier with highs closer to 40°. Let’s watch for at least the threat of some light areas of drizzle/sleet or flakes Thursday night. Accums of anything more than a dusting are unlikely right now.

Friday: Partly cloudy and breezy with highs back to 45-50°



Discussion:

We are now halfway (almost) through the month…and temperatures are still running some 4+° above average for KC…there continues to be a lack of moisture…and in connection to that a lack of snow…nd we’re not alone for the latter.

Look at IA/NE/SD/IL/KS/MO…not much has fallen…or will fall for awhile it appears.

When we look at the national view…look at the lack of snow through the Plains and upper Midwest. This is one of the big reasons why we’re having a tough time staying cold for any length of time.

There was more snow last year on today’s date…than this year (so far)…38% vs 22%.

So when we look at the surface map…showing the winds…notice how the winds are blowing over snow-free areas…this is one reason why, when the cold fronts come through…their not exactly overwhelming…

(graphic via windyty.com)

Clouds which moved into the area this morning are moving away…although we’re probably going to see more cloud cover overnight…as clouds in the northern Plains move southwards…

The weekend looks changeable…with strong warming potential possible on Saturday…60s are very doable with enough sunshine and wind…considering the dry ground and the dry air as well…actually it’s a classic set-up for a strong warm-up…and I wouldn’t be shocked IF we can see highs near 65° on some areas to start the weekend. The record is 67° set in 2006. I don’t think we can get there…but IF we can really mix out the warm air above us…and with enough wind…there is some potential.

Sunday will be cooler…not sure about any rain chances BUT there will be some sort of weird disturbance coming out of the TX and moving NEwards and falling apart as it moves towards MO…there may be some showers with this…and this disturbance will be sort of merging with another coming through the Rockies at about the same time…so something could happen around these parts on Sunday and it’s worth watching. Doesn’t look to be a heavy event but maybe somebody out there could get 1/4″ or so…maybe? Odds are better towards southern MO where it’s actually drier…and the drought is getting worse there.

Then next week we go up and down again for temperatures…with a lack of significant storms in the Plains region.

Beyond that…you may be hearing rumors of snow on Christmas week…and it’s certainly NOT out of the question. I think it’s fair to say it will be colder as the week moves along…so that seems to be a reasonable starting point…yes it should be cold enough for snow.

The GFS model has been blitzing us with snow…taking the snow mostly away…then creeping it back in for Christmas week. I’m just NOT sold yet…

One of our twitter followers sent this to me…showing what their weather app was showing…again remember that these apps should rarely be used for forecasts past a few days out…they are 100% model based…which is fine when the models from 6-15 days out are perfect…which is never. This is why…whenever the model gets updated…and day 10 forecast will change from 12″ of snow…to sunny and 50° in the course of 12 hours.

For snow lovers..again at least there will be cold air coming…so that is a step in the right direction. Another “step” is that there will be disturbances that should be moving through the Plains at some point Christmas week. After those two steps though…I’m not sure what we really have…IF there is too much cold air…it could suppress the best moisture well south of here…IF the cold air doesn’t get far enough southwards…then we have rain/ice/snow questions. It’s just too early. Something to watch…sure…but I can’t take this seriously for at least another week…and you shouldn’t either.

We need to have some sort of significant wave to hang back over the SW part of the country. This is something that we haven’t seen at all over the last few months…this has led to the dry conditions across the SW part of the country. IF something could hang back…then colder air will come in…and in time whatever is hanging back could make things more interesting locally Christmas week. Right now I’m just not in that camp yet. Things look just too progressive to me. So as a result IF we get anything…it may not be much to write home about…and then there would be the issue of having the cold air shoving the better moisture farther southwards.

Obviously this is PURE speculation for something 2 weeks away (or thereabouts). A lot will change…but right now we need to see some significant changes in how the waves come out of the western US for me to get mroe excited about our snow prospects.

Could we be affected by clippers…sure…should those clippers produce snow and should one of those clippers be just strong enough…maybe we can line up for accumulations in the more minor variety.

I still just don’t like the scenario for Christmas week for any big storm at this point…colder…yes…even before Christmas…but again a lack of snow from here northwards will play a factor in just how cold.

Chris Kurtz has the feature photo today…nice tropical setting from Fiji !

Not that warm here on Saturday…but great for mid December!

Joe

 

 

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