Joe’s Weather Blog: Staying the course for the cold…and maybe some snow (WED-12/20)
Good Wednesday morning…kind of a gray day out there today…and with a lack of sunshine and considering this is one of the shortest days of the year for daylight purposes…it’s going to be rather tough to warm up a lot today. During this time of year with the lowest sun angle of the year…and sometimes a lack of wind…it can create some temperature forecasts headaches. It’s something that I was wondering about over the weekend…and sure enough I overshot the highs for today’s forecast…this will happen during the winter season especially. Strangely though, even with the clouds, and murky skies out there, it should still be close to or above average later this afternoon.
Today: Mostly cloudy and more seasonable with highs in the 40-45° range.
Tonight: Pretty steady temperatures with lows in the 30s with a lot of clouds
Thursday: There may be a few periods of drizzle out there…highs around 50° or so. It will be somewhat breezy as well adding to a bit of a damp chill.
Friday: Colder but really more seasonable with highs in the 30s
The morning satellite picture is a telling one…some areas are bright and sunny, while more of the KC region from about I-70 southwards are under a blanket of clouds…
These clouds don’t seem to be moving a lot this morning though…so for areas getting sunshine…you may keep it for awhile…and your temperatures may end up more in the mid-upper 40s…while the cloudier areas will really struggle today to warm up above the lower 40s.
All that moisture in the form of lower clouds…mostly from about 5-6,000 feet downwards…will be an issue for our area through Thursday night. The moisture down south will be coming northwards.
As it does so on Thursday and with a cold front getting closer…there may be enough going on to create some areas of sprinkles/mist/drizzle at times. There really isn’t any moisture about 6,000 feet or so to help the clouds create bigger rain drops so anything much more than that should be tough to achieve. Odds are any rain that falls will amount to under 5/100ths of an inch.
The front that has been well advertised for over a week…should move through later Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will drop from about 48-53° to around 32° by late evening. Again IF there is any leftover sprinkles or mist out there…let’s watch the potential for some freezing mist/drizzle. By Friday AM we should be down into the 20s. Highs on Friday struggle but we should still get into the 30s by the end of the day with enough sunshine.
Really in the scheme of things this cold front isn’t that unusual nor is it overly cold…it’s again just a jolt back to more seasonable temperatures for late December. One thing I’ve noticed about the longer range models and these air masses…they seem to be overdoing the cold…I’m not sure if this is because of the true lack of snow cover or what…but we still not tapping any true arctic air…yet.
Speaking of snow cover…here is the latest on that is morning…
There is about 24% of the country under snow this morning…and a real void through the Plains…and really even through the Dakotas too.
The last time there was this little snow cover overall…was in 2011…hey it could be worse…in 2005 there was only about 16% coverage…on this date.
One of the areas that has changed tremendously with snow pack…is across the western US and particularly parts of California…and into the Sierras region. Let’s use a slider bar to show the changes…slide left for this morning…and right for last year on this date…
There is some more snow heading for that area over the next 24+ hours…
Up to 3-6″ are possible in the higher elevations it appears…
Meanwhile as far as the snow risk goes here…I’m still thinking there may be at least some snow in the region on Sunday…Christmas Eve…it won’t be a lot…but there is still the potential of a windblown dusting to 1/2″ or so in spots scenario for Sunday morning especially. So I don’t want to let that go yet.
Obviously unless there is some sort of Christmas Miracle on Sunday with this…it probably won’t be a huge issue…and certainly not what the model data, at least, has been showing off and on for the last 10ish days…I saw this tweet this morning…seemed to sum up things nicely…made me chuckle.
That’s about right I think.
And guess what…there may be another opportunity to go on the snow roller coaster next week…and actually I’m strangely more intrigued by this potential than I’ve been for the Christmas Eve scenario.
More on that over the weekend…but it seems to “makes sense” to me…and the meteorology aspect of it would be supportive. Let’s watch next Wednesday>Thursday. I don’t think it would be a lot but it could be our 1st 1″+ type event which would probably create some travel issues…
By the way…in case you didn’t remember…Thursday is the 1st day of winter…
OK that will do it for today…next update will be Thursday afternoon as we enjoy our last somewhat mild day for awhile.
Our feature photo comes from Skrapy!