Joe’s Weather Blog: Snow in FL…ice in SC…big eastern storm…cold here (for now) (WED-1/3)

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Good morning…another cold day on tap for the area another cold air mass has moved south into the area. Last night the temperature never really dropped of…but they will languish today, even with some sunshine as this next cold shot moves through. The good news is that this will start a transition though…and while the next couple of days will be cold…we should finally start “relaxing” the pattern a bit towards the weekend…which means a return closer to average although it will be a struggle and the hoped for Saturday warm-up may not happen. I’m also wondering with the cold weather in place, perhaps on Saturday too…whether or not there could be some light icing on cold pavement Sunday morning depending on when the rain arrives. The ground is pretty cold and it may not warm up much through Saturday. More on that potential tomorrow.



Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny skies…breezy and cold. Wind chills will be a bit of an issue today…mostly around 10° (perhaps lower in spots). Highs in the 20s

Tonight: Fair and cold with lows tanking to near 0°

Thursday: Mostly sunny and chilly with highs around 20°

Friday: Partly cloudy and chilly with highs well into the 20s



Discussion:

It’s not often you start the morning and check out the weather, here and elsewhere and see this…

Yup that’s snow in FL…Tallahassee even had 1/10″ officially. I’m sure there are tons of kids down there who have never seen snow before in their lives…so I think that’s pretty neat!

Meanwhile in the SE part of the country…it’s pretty darn cold. There is snow…sleet…freezing rain and in general a very Midwest feel to what’s happening down there. Here is a look at forecast high temperatures down there via Pivotal Weather

Pretty darn chilly.

This should auto-update for you.

 

 

The arctic air that we’ve been dealing with has spread down to the south…in conjunction with this…a powerful surface storm is forming off the coast of FL and will turn into a monster storm as it moves off the east coast. This storm will eventually have an “eye” to it as it intensifies towards the NE part of the country. High winds…heavy snows…blizzard conditions and a wealth of other nasty weather is going to be a huge issue for that part of the country. Those with flight plans for tomorrow or Friday will probably either get stuck or be VERY delayed a hundreds of flight cancellations are likeyl with this storm from ME down to the NYC airports…and perhaps even farther south.

The snow situation should be “mostly” a coastal thing…and not penetrate that far inland…that places the coastal areas of New England…down through Long Island…south through NYC…and south through the DE region all under the snow threat. all the counties in pink are under winter storm warnings for the next 2 days or so.

 

 

Those totals in the NYC area look too low to me…this could be a blizzard for them too.

The storm will be undergoing a phase called bombogenesis tomorrow. This occurs in rapidly strengthening and dropping air pressures in the storm core. To qualify…the pressure of the developing storm must drop at least 24 millibars in 24 hours…this will have no problem doing so.

Notice how the storm develops off FL and moves northwards, This is model data will will automatically update for you through the event…it’s the NAM model.

For timing purposes…12Z is 6AM…18Z is noon…00Z is 6PM and 06Z is 12AM, Those are central times.

Farther up the coast…this is the morning forecast for the Boston region…blizzard conditions are likely up there, especially around the coastal region.

 

Keep an eye on this satellite perspective over the next few days…this should auto update.

and a closer view…again it should auto-update.

Another aspect to this storm is that it’s going to dump in some of the coldest air in recent memory behind it…records are possible with this type of cold coming their way.

Meanwhile for our area…there’s this.

Patrick, one of our blog readers…did a quick analysis of what happened in those years top years regarding moisture for the rest of the year…the results were not too encouraging…his data showed a strong tendency to see lower than average amounts of moisture in KC.

He also had a good point regarding the moisture we’ve seen over the last few years…

As far as moisture goes…we’re still setting up for some rain (yes rain) with perhaps some back end snow Sunday into Monday morning. Right now neither aspect looks overly impressive. From a rain standpoint…odds are (right now) it will be under 1/2″ or so…perhaps under 1/4″ or so for some. The snow aspect is VERY iffy on the back side of this.

At least we’ll be above freezing on Sunday at the latest I think. Saturday is a bit more of a question mark IF a warm front sets up too far south of KC.

The EURO has been cranking out a more significant snow event on day 9-10 for the last couple of runs…

Our feature photo today comes from Doug Collins…of something pretty cool. They’re called ice flowers and here is an explanation of how they form.

Joe

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