Joe’s Weather Blog: Up and down we go… (SUN-1/28)

Good afternoon…temperatures today are markedly cooler than they have been over the last couple of days. We’ve enjoyed some nice weather but today the clouds and the north winds have created an adverse warm-up scenario for the afternoon. Highs should max our 40-45° or so. Tonight there is still a chance of some flakes of snow…but I’m not expecting too many, if any issues for the majority of the viewing area.



Forecast:

Tonight: Clouds lowering and thickening this evening with some snow flakes possible. Lows dropping to 15-20°.

Monday: Mostly sunny and chilly with highs 30-35°

Tuesday: Turning windy and not as cold but the winds will make it feel chilly. Highs in the mid 40s

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and milder with highs 50°-55°



Discussion:

Temperatures so far this month are running .9° below average. Including today there are 4 more days of data to put in those totals. Today will be near average…Monday and Tuesday will be a bit below average to average…Wednesday will be above average by 10° or so…In the end…this will probably be a colder than average month…

Interestingly…on the news and in the blog on Friday…I mentioned the strange “feel” so far this winter. It “feels”like a rather cold winter..but the numbers tell otherwise. For example…in December we finished the month .6° above average. We’ve had 31 days with temperatures above average and 27 days with temperatures below average. In the end…today will be an above average day making 32 days above average compared to 27 days below.

This is now the 45th coldest winter through the 27th…with winter defined as 12/1-2/28.

We’re still in the top 1/3rd of cold winters (so far)…the last time a winter was as cold was 2007-8 (through the 27th). The winters of 2008-9, 2013-14, 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2000-01 were quite a bit colder through the 27th. That’s 6 other winters in the last 17 or so that have been colder than where we are now.

Yet it just “feels” colder. Perhaps because when it’s been cold…it’s really been cold…but to balance out where we are now…there have been some nice warm interludes as well. We’d be much colder overall IF we didn’t have that 1st 2+ weeks of December of mildness that’s for sure.

IF you want to actually look at astronomical winter, starting on 12/21…through yesterday…this is the 24th coldest winter so far. The most recent colder start to winter was actually the winter of 2013-14.

Anyway…there’s some fun with numbers on a pretty gray Sunday.

As far as the weather goes…colder air is pressing southwards this afternoon. It’s actually a weird day in a way…there are near 50° temperatures south of KC…while northern MO is around 32° at the noon hour.

Towards the I-80 corridor…temperatures are only in the teens to 20°…so that air will press southwards tonight.. Pretty darn cold in the morning on Monday…and a struggle to warm-up in the afternoon with high pressure right on top of the area and us relying on the late January sun angle to get warm.

As far as the snow scenario goes tonight. I’m not sure we’re going to get all that much. The press of colder air is also drier air…the clouds need to lower more…and we need to saturate the atmosphere. I think we’ll get some snow in the region, especially from KC northwards but the amounts may not be much at all…worse case is a dusting type scenario I think. As a matter of fact some of our short range model data is getting rather pessimistic about much at all. Worth keeping the chance of some flakes though during the evening hours though I think.

Monday is cold…

Tuesday is chilly…

Tuesday the core of high pressure is moving away and return flow set’s up. The pressure gradient will be increasing as this happens creating more wind…so that by Wednesday afternoon the winds may be gusting to about 25+ MPH or so.

Another front moves in later Wednesday…the snow chances on Thursday don’t look so good…looks overall like a flurry event at worse at this point…and maybe not even that.

We’re chilly on Friday and warm-up a bit on Saturday.

You can sort of see this utilizing the GFS ensemble average temperatures over the next 15+ days…

Those last 10 panels are average to colder overall…but…

The EURO model has come out with a different solution, which I want to show you…I realize that the maps are somewhat different in look…but notice on the EURO…push the slider to the right…there is cold air…but still to the north of the KC region…with a front to the north of us…on the GFS…slide the slider to the LEFT…that cold arctic air has pressed as far as central TX.

The reason for this is in the upper levels of the atmosphere as the GFS model has a large trough extending from Hudson Bay southwestwards allowing cold air to dump in…while the EURO model doesn’t have it to that extent…allowing a fast hitting cooler air mass to come through and then move away.

That will send your weather app, and the GFS loving meteorologists to tell you about a decent+ (1-4″ or so) of snow possible next Sunday. The noon map for next Sunday follows…see the difference in the strength of the HIGH in the western Dakotas (1052 mbs)

While the EURO says otherwise. This map is for noon on Sunday…this shows a cold front coming through. See the HIGH along the US/Canada border (1032 mbs).

Then we surge right back into the warm air…and it’s got 60° air air potentially next Monday the 5th on the EURO. You think I’m kidding?

So what does the GFS model have for next Monday afternoon…well after a low of around 5 BELOW…

 

So highs are around 65° on the EURO and around 15° on the GFS!

So what does one do then? In my opinion the EURO has gone off the rails a bit I think. I think there will be more cold air than what the EURO shows dumping southwards…although the GFS is likely overdone and it has done this all winter where it creates these massive 1050+ mb highs that end up being not as strong as what the model thinks 5-7 days out. So I do favor a colder look for the end of next weekend and the start of the following week.

As far as the snow the GFS shows…for Saturday night into early Sunday morning…some 1-4+” on the model at least. That’s a heck of a look below for snow lovers…it would be fast but windblown and cold!

Let’s look at the ensembles for some guidance…this is “forecast” for 12AM Sunday morning (same as above). You want to look for matches…or VERY close matches for confidence. The more they match the higher confidence that the model may be onto something…the fewer matches the lower confidence.

What do you see? I see 2-3 closer matches. I will let you know that there are 2 others depictions above that sort of do it as well, just 12 hours later. So that leaves us about 5 that do it…and about 15 that really don’t give us more than flurries with the cold air (that makes sense).

So at this point…NO I’m not overly excited about anything more than 1″ or so of snow NEXT Sunday.

Obviously this is just my speculation…utilizing the data in front of me…

The reason for this last part of the blog is DON’T TAKE THE GFS MODEL (or any of them) VERBATIM WITHOUT AT LEAST LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES! I’ve said this a million times before…and it requires more digging for a meteorologist and many won’t do it…but I do. IF the ensembles were more on board with this…it would pique my interest more…but right now many don’t really do a lot for us, except get us cold.

OK that’s enough for today…I’ll be blogging about the Super Duper Blood Blue Eclipse Moon or whatever they call it…Monday’s blog.

Our feature photo comes from Jackie C, one of our twitter followers and devoted FOX 4 Watchers! She was at FanFest over the weekend and tried to get as many FOX 4 personality pictures that she could…I’d say she did pretty well!

Joe

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s