Joe’s Weather Blog: Some milder days coming + severe weather down south (FRI-2/23)

Good afternoon…another pretty gray morning out there with struggling temperatures but there is some clearing of the lower clouds happening late this morning from the north to the south.  What sunshine we get today, especially on the north side should be fleeting though as the moisture that is south of here just streams back northwards tonight…and once again we go back into some rain overnight. Temperatures should be somewhere in the 33-35° range as the rain moves in…so right now I’m not too concerned about icy roads in the KC Metro area…the only way that could change…is IF we’re clear enough for a few hours this evening and see a quick drop down to near 30° before we creep back up overnight. IF that happens there may be some freezing rain at the onset north of Downtown.



Forecast:

Rest of today: Variable clouds…more sun north and more clouds south. Highs in the mid-upper 30s

Tonight: Clouds lower and thicken quickly with some liquid rain likely near 10PM…earlier south of KC. We should be around 34° or so overnight. There is the potential of some areas

Saturday: Some light showers in the early AM possible then a lull for mid-day then perhaps some scattered PM showers. So just an iffy day and with a lot of clouds and some showers in the region…it’s going to be very tough for us to warm up. Highs may only be near 40° up towards KCI to around 50-55° towards Warrensburg and Sedalia.

Sunday: Finally getting better with sunshine developing and temperature near 50°



Discussion:

It’s not exactly been a Chamber of Commerce weather week around these parts. I’m hopeful that we start getting better for a few days at least on Sunday>Tuesday. As a matter of fact we may make a run into the 60s on Tuesday…so how about some good news to start off the blog.

Meanwhile an upper level wave will be lifting into the Central Plains overnight into Saturday. The core of this wave will be passing towards the NW of KC…which typically would mean an intrusion of drier air in the mid levels of the atmosphere and that’s what I expect to move through the area tomorrow AM shutting down whatever may fall overnight. The issue for tomorrow afternoon is a weak wind shift line that will be coming through the area in the afternoon and at the surface a developing area of low pressure moving through the region during the afternoon as well. A weak cold front will slide through during the afternoon and potentially have a few showers attached to it as well.

So there are rain chances tonight ending quickly near daybreak…then we get “dry slotted” for awhile…then we have a chance of brief showers in the afternoon.

From a temperature standpoint..this would typically mean a brief warm-up during the day with a developing area of low pressure nearby but the warmer air just won’t have time to come up the State Line…and taking a look at the forecast surface temperatures tomorrow…you can see the variation across the viewing region from the KC Metro towards the Clinton and Sedalia area…

These variations are impossible to forecast for many days out…IF the developing area of low pressure tomorrow was about 100 miles farther west…we’d probably be in the milder air mass and perhaps even be talking about some fast moving thundershowers…these are the variations that we watch for in the spring season and just one issue in forecasting severe thunderstorms, when things are more unstable. This set-up in May might create something locally.

The set-up tomorrow…where the air will be warmer and more unstable (well towards the south of the region) will create severe weather. Note the temperatures above again…note the warmth through the Dixie area from the southern MS River Valley into the SE. As they heat up…and with the atmosphere getting more unstable…severe storms are likely down there. An enhanced risk of severe weather is out for W TN southwestwards into far NE TX as of this writing.

The atmosphere may also be conducive to tornado formation, especially in central and southern Arkansas later tomorrow.

It’s been awhile since the country has had bigger severe weather concerns…including today…98 days

While the year is young (very)…the severe weather has been minimal…perhaps because of the chillier Midwest temperatures…

 

 

Of note though are the above average temperatures out east…note the blue dots representing severe wind reports and while not on that map…there was a tornado south of Pittsburgh, PA on 2/15

OK…that that was a huge tangent…

Well I wanted to get into some stuff regarding the Arctic and some significant blocking that should happen up there next week…and whether it may or may not have implications in the Plains at least…but it’s taken me 2 and a half hours to get this out…and I’ve been pulled in 7 different directions today…so I’ll have to push that discussion into the weekend.

Our feature photo comes from Lola McNeely Slyter‎ down in Spring Hill showing some neat clouds from a couple of days ago.

Joe

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