Joe’s Weather Blog: Weekend system to watch…then a chilly next week (THU-3/8)

Good afternoon…I’m on my way up to Trenton, MO this afternoon to talk severe weather spotting. March is a fickle month in the US…with mostly the exception of the deep south, where the cold fronts don’t penetrate as far south as they have during the winter (mostly)…we tend to go all over the place for temperatures. Chilly…seasonable…warm all in the bag..usually in March. As a result of this…surface storms love strengthening when different temperature regimes are in place. So hang on…interesting weather is coming over the next few weeks.



Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear and chilly with lows in the mid 20s

Friday: Mostly sunny and milder with highs well into the 50s

Saturday: mostly cloudy with some sprinkles or light rain showers possible, especially later in the day and into the evening. Highs 50-55°

Sunday: There may be some rain in the area…and there is the possibility of some wet snow as well. It’s something to watch for grassy accumulations especially. Highs only in the 40-45° range with a lot of clouds.



Discussion:

Another chilly day out there today…and after tomorrow…there is more chilly weather coming. So far this month we’re running more than 4° above average but March is a month where the average highs and lows quickly go up. Today the average high is 52° and the average low is 30°. By the end of the month it’s 61°/38°

Ask the folks back east about March…they got slammed pretty good by a nor’easter yesterday although the snowfall ranged from nuisance to something much worse. Since for many it was a heavy wet snow…lots of trees came down and that resulted in millions without power.

As of this afternoon some 1 million customers are still without power. MA alone has over 330,000. It’s getting better slowly.

The hardest hit was NW NJ up into W MA and S NH. This is great news for the ski areas up there heading towards Spring Break. More higher elevation snows are likely in New England as well for a couple of more days to.

Here is a closer look into the NY region

You can see the storm on the satellite image…it’s off the Maine coast line.

It was a tough forecast, especially for the NYC region…

Amounts varied from a few sloppy inches of snow to almost 2 FEET in about 30 miles or so.

Meanwhile farther north towards the Boston area…

Quite the storm…the highest total I saw was 36″ in Woodford, VT. It’s located east of Bennington, VT…

For us…well…that would be the equivalent of about 6 seasons like what we’re experiencing now. We’re still stuck just shy of 6″.

Maybe we could add a pinch to that Sunday but temperatures may not cooperate. There is a disturbance up towards western Canada that will be dropping into the Plains. The EURO model isn’t too bullish…the GFS and NAM have something going on because the latter two models have a more cognizant upper level storm dropping into KS or at least closer to the KC area. Should that work out…we may well see a conversion to wet snow Sunday AM…and perhaps some accumulations.

When I looked at the GFS this morning…I will say it did weirdly bring back memories of my epic forecast failure from early FEB when we had that 1-3″ snow fall in about 2-3 hours on that Sunday. I shuddered. There is a difference though…we won’t nearly be as cold in the lower part of the atmosphere this time as we were back in FEB. With that said…I’m not ruling anything out for this right now.

Let’s just say it’s something to monitor for the next 48 hours.

Then we’ll be somewhat chilly MON>WED of next week.

Wicked Weather Week continues. Tonight the focus is on lightning and I’ll try and bust some myths when it comes to thunderstorms.

Tomorrow will be the last story about the technology advances that have been realized over the last few years+ and how we try to keep you safe.

Our feature photo comes from Lara Bee…

Joe