Joe’s Weather Blog: A late next week payoff (SAT-3/10)

Nice early blog for you today as I’ll be heading to the Snake Saturday parade on the northside later this morning. Roughly 50-100,000 people will be excited that it’s not snowing, like it was last Snake Saturday. It’ll feel coolish with temperatures in the 40s for the parade and a breeze, but it’s better than last year…that’s for sure. Thankfully it’s not Sunday…today will definitely be the better of the two weekend days.



Forecast:

Today: Increasing clouds and seasonable with highs well into the 50s to near 60°. SE winds of 10-15 MPH. There may be a few sprinkles out there too at times

Tonight: Cloudy with some rain showers likely. Temperatures will remain mild for the evening (50s). A cold front till move though very early Sunday and that will start to send temperatures down into the 30s by daybreak

Sunday: Clouds…dreary…colder with highs around 40°. Some spits of rain…even some snowflakes mixed in are not out of the question. There may be more wet snow flakes in north central and NE MO. Worst case…some grassy accumulations. Highs near 40°

Monday: Clouds early then some clearing but chilly with highs in the 40s



Discussion:

We’re going to get a good dose of typical March weather in the region this next week…cold at first and rather mild towards the end of the work week. As a matter of fact some 70s are very possible either Thursday or Friday…and depending on the timing of the next cold front there is a chance we can hit the 70s next Saturday for St Patrick’s Day. Right now however I’m not as bullish for next Saturday because of the timing of the next cold front coming later next week. 

Today will be a changeable sky day…clouds will be increasing as the day moves along. The visible satellite picture shows this cloud cover moving through the region…

We’ll see how fast we can warm up today before the clouds really impact things. Here is a look at radar to keep an eye on what’s happening.

Meanwhile I’m keeping an eye on an upper level wave that is moving through the northern Plains today…

See that little curl through SE MT…that is the wave that will be dropping into the Plains today then sliding into MO tonight>Sunday. That little curl represents a cold pocket of air aloft. It will be coming right over KC tonight into Sunday and then sliding into the MO bootheel later tomorrow.

IF it would come farther westwards…more towards Salina or Manhattan…that would put our area more in the favored region for precipitation. As is though…it appears central MO will have a better chance of seeing 1/10-1/4″ of moisture as opposed to our area in KC and westwards. We may get something overnight…but it probably won’t be much.

The morning run of the NAM model…might be a bit bullish with the rain totals in central MO…but you get the idea as far as our area goes at least…

As far as what form of precipitation this will take…that’s where things become more interesting as areas east of KC have a chance of seeing at least some grassy area accumulations in a rain>wet snow scenario. Odds favor areas more towards central MO for this…but basically from around 65 highway eastwards…there may be some snow accumulation.

Areas east of KC…will be watching the thermometers Sunday morning because IF it’s snowing and 35-36°…probably no big deal BUT if it’s snowing at 32-33°…that could be an issue because with the core of the colder air aloft coming right through the region…that means that the snow may fall harder on the MO side than anything that happens from KC westwards. Here is a look at future radar at about 10AM Sunday.

That’s a nice swath of potentially accumulating snow towards the east of the Metro especially.

IF the upper level storm is farther west…like I mentioned…then everything gets pulled to the west including the snow potential. Something to watch on radar on Sunday.

Let me show you the forecast off the NAM model for this upper level wave…we’re going up to about 18,000 feet or so.

You can see how it comes right on top of KC.

As I mentioned despite the storm coming on top of us…the better precip should be on the MO side as opposed to on the KS side.

I wanted to show you the current drought report…and compare it to last year for the same 1st week of March…there is a difference between last year and this year. Last year we were actually in worse shape compared to where we are this March (so far). When the bar is on the LEFT side…that’s the current report.

 

Now let’s do the same thing on the KS side…this year is much worse compared to 2017…so sort of a total reverse between MO and KS. Bar LEFT is current

 

and for what it’s worth…not encouraging from the NAM model for the next 3 1/2 days…

After the system tonight>Sunday…nothing is expected till next weekend. That next system bears some watching. GFS would be setting up for the 1st severe weather outbreak in the Plains…while the EURO really isn’t that bullish. It will depend on the next cold front and where it set’s up and moves towards next Saturday. So that day could be a day to pay attention too…and yes…that’s St Patrick’s Day.

This is not the time of the year where you really want to get to involved in the weather a week away though, especially when it comes to severe weather potential. No skill in this.

Our feature photo comes from Kellie Lewis Cobern down at the Lake of the Ozarks. It was taken this morning.

Have a great day…

Joe

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