Joe’s Weather Blog: What was nice isn’t anymore (3/13)

Good morning…a brisk start out there today with temperatures in the mid 20s. Should overall be rather pleasant through Thursday with significantly warmer weather coming. We should max out around 65° or so on Thursday before things head downhill. I’ve had my suspicions about Saturday (St Patrick’s Day) for awhile…and I think it’s going to be a nasty raw day in the area…colder than what other forecasters are thinking and Friday (the day before) also will not be much of a bargain…also I think that day, which looked so mild from this past weekend…now looks like a day with temperatures well below average as well and rainy to boot. Heck IF we’re not careful there might even be some sort of frozen precip around on Saturday up towards the north of KC.



Forecast:

Today: Sunny and seasonable with highs around 50°

Tonight: Cold with lows in the 20s

Wednesday: After a pretty cold start…much better in the afternoon with highs approaching 60°

Thursday: Best day of the week with highs well into the 60s



Discussion:

Sometimes as a forecaster you just have to rip the bandaid of a previous forecast and take the pain that comes with it. In my last blog I was thinking that we would be OK on Friday and mild. I discounted the EURO model (always an iffy proposition on my part) and though that it was off the reservation about creating a surface storm moving towards the SW of KC…well that was a mistake.

There isn’t much of a chance we’ll be warm on FRI or Saturday…as a matter of fact it’s going to be cold. Assuming the surface low passes south of KC…that keeps us in the cold air and means either falling temperatures or steady temperatures on Friday…and that then also means Saturday the region will be firmly in the colder air as the surface low will be towards TN and we’re going to be be in the colder air mass.

The luck of the Irish won’t help us with this one. The only chance of any sort of moderation is IF the sun manages to come out but I’m not optimistic.

My feeling is that you’re going to see radical forecast changes tonight and tomorrow to what you’re seeing out there now.

The key is the progress of a surface storm…and the location of a warm front which will probably be well south of the area but trying to come northwards. The maps are fascinating to look at.

1st lets start with Friday at 7AM…we have a strong easterly flow of air…and the warm front is well south of here.

The Low pressure area SW of Goodland will move towards the east then drop SEwards later Friday. Here is the forecast map for Friday evening…

Look at the effects on the temperatures…these are the forecast highs on the EURO model…it may not be that cold…but it may be close on Friday.

The mild air that I was hoping for in more towards SE and central KS…and we’re firmly in the cold air. This has happened several times this winter where these surface storms have passed towards the south of KC…and on top of that this is a set-up for rain overnight Thursday into Friday as well…perhaps 1/2″ plus.

This is also a strong set-up for me to go buy fertilizer today and get that down tomorrow I think.

As the surface storm passes by towards the south of the area later Friday night into Saturday morning,w e may try to warm up a few degrees, especially on the south side…then as the surface storm passes towards the Lakes region Saturday morning…the colder air will circulate into the region again and the temperatures will fall.

So for the parade…this could be a set-up for a cold mist/drizzle shower scenario with temperatures around 40°. Heck a couple of ice pellets wouldn’t shock me at some point on Saturday :( . Although we may break out into sunshine in the afternoon with temperatures at the end of the day closer to about 40°-45° (only IF we get the sunshine)

The only way this forecast changes is 1) if the surface low is farther north of the region putting us in the milder air. Notice this is what the GFS is trying to do…but yet it still has the north side in the colder air on Friday but the south side is in the warmer air. That’s a 20° variation in the KC metro area! Early morning update…even the GFS isn’t doing this anymore on the new run.

Then it has sunshine on Saturday with temperatures closer to about 55° in the afternoon.

I think this is too optimistic…

Cold air always wins these battles…so with the warm front farther south…we should stay colder on Friday and Saturday in my opinion.

Meanwhile it’s pouring snow in the NE part of the country.

The winds as shown above and below are going to be a big issue…and more power outages are expected.

Another 100,000 customers are out of power right now as a result of these last few systems there and that number will again grow over the next 12+ hours.

Our feature photo comes from Rodney Chai…a student at KU. He was in the last nor’easter. This is from Haverford, PA just NW of Philly

Joe

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