Joe’s Weather Blog: Finally some better rains (for some of us) (SUN-3/18)

Good afternoon…the sun is slowly coming out here at Casa Lauria…as the low clouds have been an expected issue in the region today. They are thinning out briefly from the southwest to the northeast but many areas from near KC and northeast will not see any sunshine again today. The next system that we’re tracking though is showing some promise for the KC area in terms of more rain. After looking at the data I think the odds are more favorable for over 1/2″ of rain around where I live so as soon as I’m done with this blog I’m going to be putting fertilizer down since it needs a good 1/2″ of moisture to get watered into the soil.



Forecast:

Tonight: Increasing clouds from the SW>NE again. Rain will develop in some areas as well before 12AM. The heaviest rain though will wait till after daybreak. Lows should be in the 40° range.

Monday: Rain and perhaps some thunderstorms in the morning. Some heavy rain is likely from near the I-70 corridor southwards before lunch. Lighter rains are expected north of downtown KC. Temperatures will not change much during the day with highs probably in the 40s

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with some scattered showers possible. Maybe a few snowflakes across NW MO too. Highs in the 40s. Chilly and raw day for the 1st day of Spring.

Wednesday: Better with milder temperatures well into the 50s.



Discussion:

Well some positive changes in the data for the next 36 hours,,,mainly concerning Monday. I had been targeting the area about 75 miles south of KC for the heavier rains on Monday but a subtle shift northwards brings the heavier rain potential into the I-70 and south corridor it appears. My guess is that thunderstorms + a band of heavier rains will develop and move norrthwards in the KC Metro area…then stall and slowly spin away Monday afternoon.

Today on the other hand is the expected tough to warm-up day. We’re trying though as skies are trying to brighten up near the area. We’re in the process of stripping out the lower clouds but higher clouds are replacing the lower clouds. we have a few more hours of heating to help us out.

There is an area of low pressure developing in Colorado and an upper level wave coming out into the Plains. The image below is the surface analysis that shows the isobars or lines of equal air pressure.

 

A rather stout system is coming out of the Rockies this afternoon…and will intensify into the Plains tonight and MOnday as it moves along the KS.OK border and then moves into southern MO later tomorrow.

Thunderstorms should develop tonight in the eastern OK/TX Panhandle region and then move towards the northeast and arrive before daybreak. Some locally heavy rain is likely with that band of rain as it spins our way. Here is the way the hi-res NAM model thinks things will play out.

On a more local scale…here is the idea. The times are from 4AM>4PM…this should be the bulk of the rain in the area.

So in the end…amounts may be in excess if 1″ for many areas south of I-70 it appears.

NOTE: Check out the sharp cutoff to the decent totals…roughly the 36 highway corridor. You can see how a south shift of the heavier AM rains would then take that cutoff and bring it closer and closer to the KC Metro area. I can’t promise total coverage of 1″+ rains, but hopefully we’ll get solid 1/3″ coverage with good 1/2″-3/4″ coverage in the KC Metro area with some heavier amounts.

Here is a look at regional radar…

So let’s insert the NWS from Pleasant Hill so you can track the rain as it develops overnight and heads this way…

Here is the HRRR model showing how things may develop overnight into the morning. This will auto-update all evening for you pushing through the next 18 hours or so via IA State

The best vertical motion to the atmosphere quickly moves away around lunch or so…so the afternoon won’t be overly wet it appears…some mist or drizzle is possible. Also the temperatures won’t be moving much tomorrow…probably only in the 40s since we may not get much sunshine. There may be some breaks in the clouds though later in the afternoon so perhaps a few pockets of 50s may crop up, especially towards the NE of KC.

Late Sunday night update…not so much for the heaviest rains north of I-70…latest NAM has reduced METRO totals quite a bit compared to earlier with an even sharper cutoff…

There will be another system later in the week that may give us some rain/storms too heading into Saturday morning. Another strong warm-up is expected that may take highs into the 70s as early as Thursday and perhaps even on Friday depending on the cloud cover situation on Friday.

Other weather notes…remember how it’s been so crazy dry and snow-less across CA for most of the winter…well they’re trying to attempt a “March Miracle” where they get most of their rain/snow in one month. Another significant system is going to hit later Tuesday into Thursday. A full fledged “Atmospheric River” aloft is going to be pointed right into southern CA…as that moisture runs into the Mountains, it get’s lifted and the precipitation can be copious. Flooding is an issue in these situations.

 

The mountains will receive 1-5 FEET of snow it appears in central and southern CA The reservoir levels are actually not terrible out there so this will help out even more…

The mountains though…which need the snow that eventually melts into the reservoirs that helps the longer term water situation are still low on snow “water”…this next chart shows this. Look at the darker blue numbers…

The CYAN color shows the average snow water situation…so roughly 40% of “average” and some 2/3rds less than last season’s craziness. Again this system will be helpful.

OK that’s it for today…my tour of Missouri continues on Monday as I head out to Sedalia in the morning to talk to a lunch group. I hope to get the blog updated before I head on the road for most of the day.

Our feature photo comes from Travis Wessel…who always sends me great images of KC on my FB page…it’s of the parade from yesterday!

Joe

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s