Joe’s Weather Blog: Miserable Monday morning (3/19)

If we didn’t need the moisture so much…this would be an lousy Monday morning of epic proportions. We need the rain though so I’m giving it a pass I think. There will be winners and losers…northside not as much as the southside. As I type this the upper level storm is moving along the KS/OK border and is progressing eastwards. The shield of moderate rain with a few embedded thunderstorms is slowing it’s northwards movement and as the upper level storm passes east of Springfield, MO later this morning the rain will wrap back into it and slowly break up after lunch. Till then though…grab  another cup of coffee, take a nap,,,stay warm…you get the idea.



Forecast:

Today: Rain tapers to showers this afternoon. Temperatures will sty chilly through lunch…only around 40°. We may get some recovery this afternoon into the mid-upper 40s. Rain amounts will be heaviest from KC southwards.

Tonight: Lots of clouds with some breaks and lows near 32°

Tuesday (Spring starts at 11:15  AM): Mostly cloudy with the potential of some scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs in the 40s

Wednesday: Improving with a mix of sun and clouds with highs well into the 50s



Discussion:

I mentioned last night that the 1st part of the day would resemble those coffee commercials where someone was near a roaring fire in the fireplace with their favorite cup of coffee with the special creamer that they’re sniffing as the stem comes off the cup. That is the weather this morning for many areas from KC southwards.

Thunder, lightning, cold temperatures, a very raw NE wind cutting wind chills into the 20s…all on the menu as a rather decent looking storm passes towards southern MO this morning.

In the big picture of radar…you can see the circulation down there..

Closer to home, the winds at the surface are blowing INTO that area of low pressure. If you check out the 7AM surface map you can see that rather clearly…

It’s a impressive surface storm…

There has been some good news with this storm…some much needed rains fell out west of the area…in areas that have been plagued by drought over the last few months. No not towards the TX Panhandle…but at least a good part of south-central and parts of SW KS saw some needed moisture and they needed it.

The wheat crop out towards SW KS is a mess right now…because of little to no moisture. This was a picture tweeted out yesterday giving you an idea of the way it looks.

Kalvesta is just a small community out in the middle of nowhere NW of Dodge City, KS east of Garden City. I was wondering what it was supposed to look like during this time of the year…and the folks @KansasWheat sent me this image…not even close.

via @TopCropMag

Judging from Doppler radar estimates…it appears that area saw moisture (even some snow) in the 1/10-1/2″ range overnight. Drop in the bucket but beggars can’t be choosy. There is a Winter Weather advisory out for that area this morning as well.

Over the last 6 months, and especially in the last 120 days or so…it’s been miserably dry out there.

The storm in question is moving towards southern MO…check out the water vapor loop showing the circulation…

As it gets farther and farther east…so will go the rain that’s out there now…

Here is a look at our short term model (HRRR) and notice how the rain (solid this morning) starts breaking up this afternoon via IA State.

 

By the end of this day…widespread 1″ totals are likely from I-70 southwards…already there has been over 1″ of rain towards the SW of KC according to Doppler radar estimates.

Ground truth for this system is pretty impressive south of the MO River…

Some 1″+ totals in JOCO KS…as this system is outperforming last nights model data south of I-70 into the KC Metro area…no complaints. Let’s see it we can get it to outperform north of the River which is very possible from I-70 north to St Joe.

Don’t worry…60s/70s are on tap for the area from THU>SAT before another shot of chillier air moves in later Saturday into Sunday.

By the way…may see some nasty tornadoes into the TN Valley region today…

Overall around these parts at least…just one of those days.

Our feature photo comes from Glenna Oidtman of a nice sunrise out towards Grandview awhile ago.

Joe

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1 Comment

  • Nick

    aaand KSTJ is still the Charlie Brown of weather… so far .02 inch it came further north just enough to rub a little more salt in the wound lol. that radar rainfall estimate looks alot like the summer storms last year that hit KC but left St. Joe mostly high and dry.