Joe’s Weather Blog: An Easter chill that will linger (THU-3/29)

Good afternoon…everyone is dressed in blue today in honor of the Royals Opening Day. As I type this blog…it’s in the lower 40s…not exactly baseball weather out there today, really more like football weather. The thing is…the pattern continues to point to “generally” cold weather as we’ll be vulnerable to shots of cold weather coming from Canada over the next couple of weeks. Some of the long range model data is actually rather cool for the month of April as a whole as well…whether that’s because of the colder trends to start the month…or more of a persistent chill for the month as a whole…we’ll see.

The somewhat good news to this…with chillier weather…it’s tougher for us to have real severe weather concerns in KC. The nations slow start to severe weather season may continue as well.



Forecast:

Tonight: Variable clouds with more clearing skies overnight. Chilly as well with a good frost in the morning. Lows in the 20s

Friday: Partly cloudy and dare I say more seasonable with highs well into the 50s to near 60° with enough sunshine

Saturday: A cold front will move through…so there may be some showers out there, especially before lunch. The winds will switch towards the north at 15-25 MPH in the afternoon. Highs may max out in the 50s before the front comes in near lunch…then sort of slowly fall off in the afternoon

Sunday (Easter): Mostly cloudy and cold with highs closer to 40°. There is a chance of snow light snow showers as well. Can it accumulate on grassy surfaces? Only if it comes down hard enough…but it looks like a pretty chilly day. IF the clouds hang tough all day…we may only be in the 30s…one of the coldest Easters in decades potentially in Kansas City.



Discussion:

Yuck again today…although there are clearing skies working southwards this afternoon.

Here is a look at the early afternoon satellite picture…there is some clearing working southwards…near 36 highway in northern MO…

The HRRR model has persistently shown some weird light showers flaring up around 4PM or so…not sure if that’s real…but there is some subtle lift in the mid and upper levels coming through about then…and you can see the higher clouds streaming through eastern KS…perhaps a sign of that lift.

Tomorrow should actually be OK…for a change.

Saturday won’t be terrible, although a few showers can’t be ruled out before lunch. There is a rather stout cold front coming through…so temperatures will steady off and/or fall a bit in the afternoon.

So about Easter…

Let’s start with this…some of the coldest Easters in KC weather history…

The coldest Easter was on 4/4/1920 with a delightful high of 28° and we had 3.6″ of snow too! (also our snowiest Easter)

2) 3/24/1940: 35°/20° (trace of snow)

3) 3/28/1937: 35°/28° (.1″ of snow)

4) 3/29/1964: 38°/21° (trace of snow)

5) 4/8/1928: 39°/31° (trace of snow)

6) 4/2/61: 42°/29°

7) 4/8/17: 43°/30°

8) 3/30/75: 44°/21°

Interesting to note that when highs on Easter were in the 30s…it always snowed at least “something”.

Don’t be surprised if there are flakes on Sunday. This is 1) a chilly air mass building southwards…2) there is also a little streaky wave coming out of the western Plains as well. It may be fighting some drier air aloft as it approaches…and in reality, at least to me…it looks like virtually every other wave that moved through the region this past winter…some produced some snow…others had the snow falling apart as it tried to move into eastern KS

We should be rapidly clearing out later in the day…so IF we’re going to get to 40° it would have to happen late.

Another shot of colder air is likely later in the 1st week of April.

So about April…I’m not really a big fan of the CFS model that is run 4 x’s per day out to about 12+ months. Why they need to run it that many times a day is beyond me…perhaps is so that they can then get an average of the day’s runs and come up with something more accurate in it’s portrayal of things…So here is what the CFS thinks for the month of April.

That is not a good look for the month.

I absolutely think the 1st 15 days of the month are going to average out below average…I’m not sure about the last week of April though. Makes one wonder about this next map…

Our feature photo comes from @Cos72 who always takes some neat pictures and it seems apropos for today’s Royal Blue start to the season.

Joe

 

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1 Comment

  • Richard

    Thanks Joe
    Hey, Easter last year (2017) was on April 16, not the 8th, as you have it above. It caught my eye because the 8th is my sons birthday and it was quite nice last year on his BD.
    I am ready for a warm up ! It was a cold winter, and now cold again.
    Ready to do some fishing !