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Joe’s Weather Blog: Easter snow is no April Fools joke (SUN-4/1)

We may not break any snow records in KC today BUT there should be snow developing as the day wears on and there has already been some decent snow across N MO…where 1-2″ has fallen with another 1-3″ on the way up there. For KC…we’re still in the process of saturating the atmosphere…and this will take some time. There may be some flakes before lunch…no major issues for KC proper BUT…after lunch all bets are off. I continue to be concerned about some heavier snow bands in the area this afternoon after lunch. IF that occurs amounts may be near 3″ in isolated areas around KC proper.



Forecast:

This Afternoon: Sleet/snow likely in waves. There remains the chance of some locally heavy snow/sleet that could impact the roads in a bad way from here on out. BE ALERT for changing road conditions. KC totals should average a dusting to 2″ or so. Areas north of KC may do better…2-5″ possible. This will be the 2nd coldest 4/1 in KC weather history dating back to the late 1880s. The coldest…1926 (with about 4″ of snow) the high was only 29°. IF we didn’t have a midnight high of 33° this morning…this afternoon we never got to 29°.

Tonight: The potential of black ice will be there with temperatures in the 20s

Monday: Miserable gray skies and cold with highs well into the 30s…more than 20° below average. Some mist or drizzle possible at night especially

Tuesday: Some leftover AM rain…but really skies should be clearing out and while temperatures may start near 40° in the morning or perhaps a few degrees warmer before daybreak…we should see generally steady afternoon temperatures of around 40-45° with more sunshine and blustery conditions. It will feel colder with the wind blowing.



Discussion:

Let’s start with radar…

N MO has had snow for most of the morning…a look at the NW MO State web cam…from Maryville.

Chris Mack from N MO sent this shot in just about an hour ago…

The wave is coming out of the Plains now…the atmosphere above KC though is still not saturated..this was expected…but the process is ongoing as the clouds are slowly lowering and thickening…

It will still take a few more hours to saturate the atmosphere…then the snow starts. Whatever temperature we are at around 12PM…will be the high for the afternoon…once the snow starts the temperature will drop pa few more degrees…lovely.

The 12PM surface map shows the cold air…look for the ** reports…that is light snow…3 *s are moderate snow reports.

 

Maryville came in with around 3″ and St Joseph has moderate snow early this afternoon.

The HRRR model shows the evolution of the snow this afternoon…via IA State

I should be winding down by 5-6PM in KC…

The thing is when it does get going…it may get going good for parts of the area…enough to overwhelm any pavement melting…so be ALERT to this in the afternoon after about 2PM or so. Roads may turn rather slick in spots…and again watch tonight, if the roads are just wet and untreated then may start forming a black ice layer that will surprise you.

Areas on the south side…towards Ottawa>Paola>Harrisonville>Warrensburg>Sedalia may have some sort of sleet/snow combo thing happening this afternoon that should eliminate much accumulation BUT watch for slick roads overnight if black ice forms. This is what I showed on the news last night and this morning…

One caveat: IF there is any “convective” element to this…and some of the models are trying to show this…there could be an isolated 3″ total closer to the I-70 corridor. There may(?) be some thundersleet as well…perhaps more on the south side of the KC area…south of US 50.

11AM Easter Update: My colleagues US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri have extended the Winter Weather Advisory (blue counties) into the KC area…again BE ALERT for changing road conditions this afternoon. Radar is filling in to the west of the Metro and that will be moving our way over the next few hours. Some sleet may occur as well. Here are the latest counties (in blue) under a Winter Weather Advisory. Pink is a Winter Storm Warning

 

Beyond today…the forecast isn’t so nice either. Right now Thursday looks good…highs may be in the 60-65° range. Before that though…this cold air mass will linger on Monday and there may be some mist/drizzle later in the day or at night. Hopefully by then our temperatures are in the 35-40° range.

Tuesday a surface low will pass south of KC…interesting contrast in temperatures as we may try briefly to go up later Monday night then start falling again…I think that we’ll remain on the colder side of this…so temperatures will stay closer to 40° or so through that process even though skies should be clearing out during the day on Tuesday.

Wednesday morning may tank to near 20°. The record is 20° set back in 1920 (hey it was 70° on 4/1 that year).

Friday another dump of cold air will arrive at some point heading into Saturday. Need to watch for rain with an end game of snow depending on how things play out.

 

Chris Mack has the feature photo for the day from Northern MO…

Beyond today…the forecast isn’t so nice either. Right now Thursday looks good…highs may be in the 60-65° range. Before that though…this cold air mass will linger on Monday and there may be some mist/drizzle later in the day or at night. Hopefully by then our temperatures are in the 35-40° range.

Tuesday a surface low will pass south of KC…interesting contrast in temperatures as we may try briefly to go up later Monday night then start falling again…I think that we’ll remain on the colder side of this…so temperatures will stay closer to 40° or so through that process even though skies should be clearing out during the day on Tuesday.

Wednesday morning may tank to near 20°. The record is 20° set back in 1920 (hey it was 70° on 4/1 that year).

Friday another dump of cold air will arrive at some point heading into Saturday. Need to watch for rain with an end game of snow depending on how things play out.

Joe

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