Joe’s Weather Blog: Nothing is set in stone for KC right now (MON-4/30)

Good morning…this is going to be a more Spring type week in KC…really there is no cold air expected to move into the region for awhile…so from a temperature standpoint, depending on how Thursday goes with the rain risks and clouds…each day this week will feature above average temperatures I think as we may have finally broken the back on the real chilly weather. April will go down as the 2nd coldest April in KC weather history…1983 will beat this one…but boy we’re happy that this month is winding down.



Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy and windy with gusts to 40 MPH+ possible. Highs around 80°

Tonight: Partly cloudy and windy with more gusts to 30-40 MPH possible. Mild with lows in the 60s

Tuesday: There may be a brief morning shower/storm then variable clouds to mostly cloudy. Highs in the 70s, but IF we get enough sunshine it could be near 80° again.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with the better risk of storms (IF we get any in KC) holding off till Wednesday night. Highs near 80°. There may be some ongoing storms in the morning towards northern MO…odds favor that activity staying north of KC.



Discussion:

I have Spring plans today…1) reset the venting to transition from heat to A/C in the house…2) take winter clothes and replace them with summer clothes and put winter clothes into the garage and 3) mow the growing grass. Busy day…and I need to power wash the deck to do some Spring painting soon. Yes Spring is here and it’s sticking around.

With Spring comes increased thunderstorm chances…It’s about to be May…and May in the Plains almost always means severe weather. From a climatological standpoint we typically see the strongest storms in May and June. Here is a tweet from the NWS a couple of days ago showing the progression of Spring time severe storm (averages)

Here’s the thing though. A lot of folks are really convinced that this is going to be a crazy active week of storms in the KC area…yet I’m still NOT convinced. When one looks at the latest SPC forecasts…they seem rather convinced that activity will be pretty abundant near KC or in KC. Again I’m still not there and haven’t been there for quite some time.

I do think we’ll get storms…but would I be shocked IF the storms wait till later Wednesday night (in a weakened state) or Thursday to be more abundant…nope…not at all.

So excuse me for not going hog-wild and showing SPC forecasts today for the region…I’m just not there at this point…especially with how they’re depicting Wednesday.

As I mentioned yesterday there are some things that I do feel confident about.

  1. the wind…it will be gusty for the next few days…perhaps over 40 MPH
  2. the clouds…yes we’re going to see more than what we saw over the weekend. How extensive those clouds are, whether being from an influx of gulf moisture tomorrow, to thunderstorm blow-off from storms in the Plains on WED and THU will determine how warm we get and indirectly determine our instability in the local area
  3. It will rain. Some areas may see over 2″ of rain BUT where the heaviest rains set up is anyone’s guess at this point
  4. By Wednesday afternoon some/many might be saying “what happened to all that bad weather those weather people were talking about”. Upper level storms that drop into the SW and kick out small pieces are notoriously delayed in coming into the Plains. The effects in the Plains are also never quite set in stone till the day of almost.
  5. Severe weather will be a risk…but it’s NOT out of the question that the KC Metro doesn’t get much from this…or it’s mostly a wind/hail threat than anything else. This whole thing right now doesn’t look “right” to me for immediate KC impacts. Storms (IF we get them on Wednesday night) may have some wind threat to them then how that alters the environment on Thursday remains to be seen.
  6. School Day impacts. We’re going to need a few things to help here. We need the storms to come in faster Wednesday night to move out faster Thursday AM. The problem is that there is going to be low level jet dynamics in play on THU AM…so IF some storms come through early they will leave a remnant boundary in the area and the low level jet will override that boundary. IF it’s set up to the south…that means a more persistent rain possible THU AM and that means School Day issues.
  7. Day to day changes in the forecast. What happens one day or one night will affect the next day/night in terms of temperatures and future storms. This will be most apparent on WED/THU. Perhaps maxing out on THU.
  8. The whole mess moves away early FRI and we dry out FRI and the weekend looks really nice right now

I’ve decided NOT to post any forecast maps in this blog beyond today…probably will tomorrow. I’m just not confident in how the severe weather threats set-up in the Plains TUE>THU so I’m not going to post the SPC outlooks because I’m not sure I agree with them. I created my own outlooks over the weekend that I showed on the newscasts. Not many will do that because it requires thought and evaluation and just not blindly taking the SPC forecasts and showing them verbatim. Don’t get me wrong…a lot of times I think there on the right path…but I’m just not confident how this scenario plays out right now for the eastern KS and western MO area at this point.

The bottom line to me at this point for the KC Metro area is perhaps some isolated to scattered activity Tuesday AM until about 9AM or so…then perhaps some scattered stuff WED early AM and then again something a bit more widespread late WED night. Thursday is the day of most “concern” but clouds and instability will have to be dealt with and evaluated before I really get my engines revved up about this whole situation.

Our feature photo comes from Daphne Burns…some nice mammatus clouds a few days ago!

Have a great day…hopefully more clarity tomorrow and Wednesday.

Joe

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