Joe’s Weather Blog: Late Wednesday Severe Update (WED-5/2)

Good evening…we’re tracking big thunderstorms with very strong winds of 60-90 MPH moving through central KS. Storms, potentially severe will reach the KC Metro area roughly between 8-10 PM or so. Perhaps earlier in NW MO. The main risks continue to be flooding rains…larger hail…and strong, damaging winds. There is a small chance (but not zero) of a tornado warning being issued. Whether anything actually touches down remains to be seen. Remain Weather Aware tonight.

The next severe weather risk is still scheduled for later Thursday afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible although we’ll see about how what happens tonight and into Thursday morning impacts the atmosphere and either enhances or distracts from additional large storms tomorrow.



Forecast:

Tonight: Storms likely towards and after 8PM. Those storms may be severe. Winds/flooding are big issue with hail also very possible. A rogue tornado is NOT out of the question. Watch for flooding!

Tomorrow: Showers and storms (not severe) possible in the AM then a brief window of drying is likely after lunch. Depending on many factors including the instability situation in the afternoon and how worked over the atmosphere is after what happens before lunch time…we may see a line of storms develop and move our way between 4-8PM or so.

Friday: Better and pleasant with highs around 75°



Discussion:

My goodness…busy…busy…busy…and the storms (as of this writing) are more than 150 miles away.

Let’s start with radar from Topeka and Pleasant Hill.

Now onto the severe weather reports thus far today…mostly winds.

and a couple of tornadoes in KS…yes almost exactly where the Tescott tornado occured yesterday. That was rated as an EF3 by the way.

It was almost 9 football fields across.

There are tornado watches in effect towards the west of the state line…on the KS side down through OK (red boxes).

The blue boxes are severe thunderstorm watches.

The ingredients are more or less there…however will such a line of storms, each fighting for instability…there are still questions about how all this will come together in terms of the actual severe weather we receive in KC. Thus far most of the reports have been wind related out there…unlike yesterday I’m not seeing the humongous hail stones that were more common from yesterday.

The leading edge of this stuff will need to be monitored, especially for areas towards northern MO early this evening for a possible spin-up. I also wonder about the “tail end charlie” storms that also can create spin-ups with this line. So watch for that too after 7PM closer to the KC region.

As night falls, especially for those on the MO side…small spin-ups are also possible. These will be VERY difficult to warn for, especially at night. They’re called “mesovortices” and they tend to be brief. Regardless they can create very localized areas of damaging winds depending where they move. This seems to be a more common theme in our region with these night-time related events.

I fully expect a new tornado watch to be issued near and north of the KC Metro area in the next couple of hours…before 7PM or so.

Please remain Weather Aware tonight and tomorrow late afternoon.

Joe

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

1 Comment