Joe’s Weather Blog: More heat and a few more storms (TUE-5/29)

Good morning…another toasty day out there today. Yesterday we established a new record high for 5/28…KCI hit 94°. It was the hottest temperature so far this year and more hot weather is coming. Today will be the 4th day in a row with highs of 90° or higher. That will tie the record for the month of May. We’ve done that feat 2 other times…in 1962 and 1967. Tomorrow we may (or may not) break it. Clouds could be an issue Wednesday in addition to some rain in the area as well…but if both aren’t that impressive…we can easily pop to 90° again! The longer term forecast is toasty into the start of the weekend at least but there could be a “bit” of a break on Sunday! Overall though…it’s hot.



Forecast:

Today: Sunny this morning then partly cloudy this afternoon. Scattered storms are possible again today but odds are many areas will remain dry again. Highs in the 90-95° range

Tonight: A large but potentially weakening area of storms will be developing in central KS today and moving east and east south east. It’s possible some of the activity could hold together long enough to get us. Lows in the 60s

Wednesday: Variable clouds…let’s go with temperatures around 90° again. The odds of rain don’t look to great though.



Discussion:

My goodness this month…not only here but through the middle part of the country. What a reversal from last month. It was about 50 days ago that it was snowing here…and about 43 days ago that we had our last snow in these parts. Then we flipped the weather on the last couple of days of the month…and since then we’ve been above average every day except for 2 (we were average those days). Pretty interesting.

There have been tons of record highs nationwide this month…through the 27th

Look at the weather up in the Twin Cities area…from yesterday!

Pretty impressive turn-around up there in the course of 44 days!

Back to KC information…So I wanted to look at how those summers did that followed the really hot month of Mays…the data may actually surprise you….in parenthesis is how we fared in June as well. So a lot of data for you to look at.

In 1962 we ended up tied for the 57th hottest summer {out of about 130 summers on record}. (In June 54 warmest)

In 1970 we were 25th (in June…59th warmest)

In 1965 we were 69th (in June 57th warmest)

In 1964 we were 57th (in June 76th warmest)

In 1936 we were 2nd (n June 14th warmest)

In 1998 we were 83rd (in June 78th warmest)

In 1987 we were 57th (in June 37th warmest)

In 1912 we were 89th (in June 120th warmest…really about 10th coolest)

and in 1941 we were 39th (in June 51st warmest)

So what does all this mean…well IF you average those 9 other years…for the summer and the month of June…you come out about 53rd hottest…for the summer. Also about 61st hottest for the month of June. Yes in the top half of warm vs cold but the reality of the data is that it’s more closer to average (warm bias) than anything which is interesting.

Those are just statistics. Interesting though…

As far as the forecast from the Climate Prediction Center goes…for June>August…

and for the month of June…

As far as my feeling go…I do think that we may be above average (overall) from June>August…I don’t think this will be a brutally scorching summer though when things are all said and done. Right now I don’t think that we’ll finish in the top 25 of hottest summers despite the crazy May heat that we just experienced.

As we start the new month…the average highs are around 80°…the latest longer range ensemble from the GFS model shows a continued stretch of above average days for quite some time…

Notice that late weekend dip closer to average…then we go right back up again. This ensemble typically underestimates highs over the course of time in my opinion.

Of note as well is the lack of rain it keeps suggesting (the ensemble part of the model). Only forecasting about 1.6″ through the next 16 days…and the EURO ensemble has about 1.2″ over the next 15 days. Now sharing that information during a time of the year where a 1 hour thunderstorm can crank out over 2″ of rain is a tougher sell, in all honesty. Perhaps though it’s a sign of the scattered nature of whats to come (without there being anything too organized).

Elsewhere the remains of Alberto are still holding together nicely in MS…

and let’s watch the Plains for strong to severe storms later today…

Meanwhile in Colorado…

Our feature photo comes from Glenna Oidtman…taken a few days ago out towards Longview Lake.

Next update on Thursday…

Joe

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