Joe’s Weather Blog: Great weather on tap…then the heat returns (SUN-6/3)
Good Sunday afternoon. This will be the last blog for awhile as I’ll be on vacation for the next 10 days or so. I may cobble something short and sweet on a day or two but there won’t be many. Probably just as well as the weather is wonderful now and the forecast may end up rather dry for some time. There are questions about that though as we may be on the edge of the “ring of fire”. It’s a fancy phrase but the issue may be where thunderstorms that develop in the Plains end up moving…IF they stay farther north later in the week…we may get rather hot and dry…if farther south…we may have multiple episodes of storminess in the region.
On a personal note…let’s start with some good personal news.
The station asked me to submit some work that I’ve done over the past year…I typically don’t “save” anything I do but it just so happened I saved a nugget from a show during Christmas week I think, or thereabouts. It wasn’t anything too fancy but it was “me”. Stuff you can’t find on your weather app…creative ways of talking about something…a different type of graphic or two that I created…in general what I live for.
Boom that particular weathercast won the “Best Weathercast” in the state of Missouri.
The weather story this week will again be on the building heat that is going to move into the Plains region. This heat will gradually build from the south to the north. The issue is how deep do we go into it. The Plains will gradually see an upper level ridge develop. We can see that by looking at what’s happening up around 18,000 feet or so in the atmosphere.
Here is the map for Friday morning…
Can you see the center of the “anti-cyclone”…it would be towards the TX Panhandle. This doesn’t surprise me because this is also where the core of the drought is located…
This anti-cyclone can also be referred to as a “heat wave generator”. This area will be most vulnerable to higher than average temperatures and already for the past 10 days or so the Western TX area has been broiling.
Lubbock is also in play with this heat too!
So there is a lot of heat down there…they’re actually getting a bit of a break today…
but that heat will rebuild quickly this week.
The map above that I started with was for Friday morning. Look closely at it again. See those little “squiggles”. The little “U” shaped dips in the flow. Those are weak disturbances that should trigger areas of storms and rain. Where exactly they go will determine our weather locally. This is the area, around the “ridge” or anti-cyclone that is referred to as the “ring of fire”.
As that heat core…expands and contracts our weather locally will teeter in between heat and storm chances. The more it expands…the hotter we get…and the more it contracts…the chances of storms will increase (or at least the risk something can drop into the area from the Plains). There will be various outflow boundaries in the region…which can then either cool you off or initiate other areas of storms…so there are complexities in the forecast for later in the week.
You can get another idea of the building heat by looking at the 5000′ temperature anomalies for next Saturday the 9th.
That’s some serious building heat through the Plains along the I-70 corridor.
The EURO forecast for next Saturday is a toasty one as well.
In all honesty however the EURO has been running on the hot side for the last few weeks…it’s been as hot but the forecasts from the model have been on the more extreme side towards the KC area…but you still get the idea of the potential at least…there is a lot of green out there now…so that may increase the dew points and keep the temperatures 1-3° below what you see above for the KC region. Farther west…it may be more realistic depending on any outflows or convective debris cloud cover.
With that said..the GFS ensemble forecast for temperatures typically are biased cool in my opinion. Here is that solution for KCI.
That’s a LOT of above average temperature weather for the region through the middle of the month (and later it appears).
Something to pay attention too.
That’s it…have a great week. I’ll be back at work on the 13th!
Our feature photo comes from Daphne Burns…highlighted one of the many trees that took a wallop yesterday morning with the storms moving through. Winds were gusting to 50-80 MPH…a lot of trees took hits and the soft wooded trees fared the worst it appears.