Joe’s Weather Blog: Hot now but a change is expected (SUN-6/17)

 

Good morning…odds are this blog will be the last one for about another week or so as I’m leaving for a trip to Boston for a weather graphics seminar. So hopefully what I write about today will play out this week…and what I’m writing about is a change in 1) temperatures and 2) rain opportunities. I think both will be welcome changes after this unusual weather we’re seen over the last few days and really the last almost 2 months. I’m not sure how much the muggy weather will change ( and I can see how it could get even muggier) but the temperatures will not be to the extreme that we’ve seen.



Forecast:

Sunday (Father’s Day): No real changes, although there are more clouds west of KC this morning. Highs today should be in the mid 90s once again, Perhaps not as hot to the west of the metro where the clouds will be a bit more prevalent.

Tonight: Sticky with lows in the mid 70s and breezy too.

Monday: Partly cloudy, hot and humid with highs well into the 90s

Tuesday: Off and on storm chances develop mainly north of KC but it’s possible some of that may drift or develop our way at some point later in the day/night. Some of the storms should have the ability to produce locally heavy rains. Highs again will be in the 90-95° range.

Wednesday>Friday: Better rain chances and not as hot.



Discussion:

I want to start things out by pointing out the “unusualness” of the current weather pattern…obviously we’ve been hot…and we’ve been hot for awhile.

So let’s simply look at the number of 90° days through yesterday…and remember we’ll add at least another to this tomorrow I think.

This to me is interesting…we’re now tied with the 3rd most 90s since weather records have been kept…going back some 130 years or so…that to me is impressive.

15 days with highs of 90° or higher just doesn’t happen that quickly around these parts. You may think it does…but it really doesn’t. Remember on average there are about 41 or so days each year with highs 90°+ going back to 1890. If you look at just the last 17 full years (2000-1017) the average is 38. So here we are already at 15…and more are coming.

So for the heck of it…let’s look at the 11 other years above (not 2018) to see how we ended up that particular year in terms of the # of 90s…

1934…80

1952…70

1953…76

2006…58

1972…47

1911…54

1963…67

2011…49

1944…51

1936…90

1926…48

In EVERY single year above…we finished with MORE 90s in a year that what typically happens (41) in KC. As a matter of fact IF you average those 11 years above…it comes out to 63 days with highs 90°+

That information above is a pretty strong signal about what may come this coming summer. Just for reference…here are the Top 20 years for the number of 90° or higher days.

As you may know…we’ve been 95°+ now for several straight days…that too is unusual for this early in the season…remember summer doesn’t officially start until this coming Thursday.

So the main point of what I’ve detailed for you is that YES this is unusual…and odds heavily favor that this is a precursor for what’s coming this summer.

The next issue is the rainfall situation. I had a conversation last night with a viewer…and he was remarking to me about how it seems over the last few years we’re not getting as much rain as what he remembers. Well I dived into that with him and wanted to share that data with you…keeping in mind that the average precipitation in KC is around 38.7″ or so. Now we must remember that the official KC weather station is up at KCI…and rainfall patterns and amounts vary sometimes substantially, from place to place. With that caveat mentioned…

I’ve highlighted the years with more than average precipitation totals…and it’s just about evenly split really. This is over the past 30 years. Of interest though is look at what’s happened from 2008 through last year…7/10 of those years have had more precipitation than average…one of the “other years was pretty close…another was somewhat close…and of course we have the drought of 2012 which really sticks out.

This year…KCI is running about 5.5″ below average through today…not good…not terrible…but not great. Again this is just one point in the viewing area (KCI). Obviously the N MO situation (and elsewhere is vastly different as has been highlighted for quite some time.

So can we expect over the coming week? Well as we saw last summer…when the atmosphere is juiced with moisture…given the right set-up you can get a TON of rain during this time of the year. The ingredients for last years big rains in the July/August time period are different for this week though…however this week there is going to be a front in the region…and where that front establishes itself will be very important from TUE>THU. With the right positioning…some areas may see 1-4” of rain…the storms won’t be fast movers and as I illustrated for you in the last blog…the atmosphere appears as if it will be swollen with moisture. Slow moving storms with a very juicy atmosphere are big indicators for heavy rain potential.

The issue though is where the front sets up. The front itself is is well NW of KC this morning…it will slowly wander southwards over the next few days…how far south it gets will be determined by the daily storms that should fire near and behind the front through Thursday.

The front right now really isn’t moving that much…it hopefully will though…and it needs too for us to get into some decent rains…

IF the front hangs to the north of the KC region…towards the I-80 corridor…that will diminish our storm chances greatly…and I’m not expecting the front to drift our way till sometime later Tuesday…so there is potential for Tuesday to be around 90° again if that front is still to the north depending on the cloud situation.

There are also some signals that some sort of upper level storm may get mixed into this mess later in the week. That would have to enhance the storm chances I would think WED>THU and maybe FRI too.

In the end…Tuesday is the somewhat iffy rain forecast day right now (what we get there should be considered a bonus)…WED>THU look better to me.

OK that’s a lot of information to absorb. Since I won’t have my computer with me this week…no blogs. I hope the rain finds you though…I know my yard is getting pretty desperate for something…anything really.

Our feature photo comes from Cheryl Ring Guffey of some neat looking thunderstorms off in the distance.

Have a great week…

Joe

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s