Joe’s Weather Blog: Building heat is the main focus (TUE-6/26)

The month of June is fading away…only a handful of days to go and it’s going to turn into another warm month around these parts. Temperatures are running 4° above average through yesterday and the month will end on an even hotter note it appears as we race well into the 90s starting Wednesday and some areas may approach 100° on Thursday. With the scant rains that parts of the area have seen…there will still be high dew points as well…so the heat index values will be even higher.



Forecast:

Today: Scattered storms possible through 2pm around the KC area then clearing skies in the KC region with scattered storms redeveloping later today towards the SE of the metro. Highs today will be near 85-90°

Tonight: Muggy with lows in the 70s

Wednesday: Hotter with highs 90-95°

Thursday: Hottest with highs 95-100°



Discussion:

Well in the last weather blog I talked about a change in the weather…a reduction in the more extreme heat that was coming and also some needed rains…the blog was written way back on  the 17th. The temperature part worked out nicely…we had about 4 days of below average temperatures…including a very cool 1st day of summer…and we had 2 days of average temperatures and 1 day of barely above average temperatures.

The rain situation though in some areas was great…while in other areas not so much. There are some farmers in KS that are a bit happier today than about 2 weeks ago…

on the MO side…the last 7 days…

There was some good and not so great news…

In the KC region though..mostly not so great…there were some nice localized downpours on occasion…but widespread significant rains…which are tough to get sometimes during this time of the year have been like pulling teeth around here.

I’ve had less than 1″ of rain in about the last 10-14 days I think…no good heading into another surge of heat.

We’ve had the opportunities though…but things have just faded as they approached the region. It happens…there are no crazy conspiracies…it happens. Some areas get more rain than others…it’s a random thing…always has been always will be. Central and southern KS was really getting banged up by the ongoing drought…they got some relief. Likewise parts of SW KS as well. It happens…in time it will be our turn.

Maybe later Saturday night?

1st the heat. Here we go again. This will not be a super long lasting shot of heat…but it will get your attention, especially WED>SAT. Then there should be a reduction in the extremeness of the heat followed by rebuilding heat and diminished chances.

Did you know there is no formal actual temperature for what a heat wave is? Look it up…if you can find me one let me know. All most definitions say is a prolonged period of extreme heat…or unusual heat. From the American Meteorological Society…

“To be a heat wave such a period should last at least one day, but conventionally it lasts from several days to several weeks. In 1900, A. T. Burrows more rigidly defined a “hot wave” as a spell of three or more days on each of which the maximum shade temperature reaches or exceeds 90°F. More realistically, the comfort criteria for any one region are dependent upon the normal conditions of that region. In the eastern United States, heat waves generally build up with southerly winds on the western flank of an anticyclone centered over the southeastern states, the air being warmed by passage over a land surface heated by the sun.”

Well that 90° rule above won’t work here…because during the middle of the summer our average high is around 90°. From the NWS… “A period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and unusually humid weather. Typically a heat wave lasts two or more days.”

Notice there is no formal temperature criteria for our area specifically…there isn’t really a length criteria spelled out. Some consider 95°+ for 3 straight days as a :heat wave”…others say longer or hotter. I’m good with the 95°+ thought…but then during the worst of the summer that’s only about 5-7 degrees above average on a high temperature basis. Then again this doesn’t involve the heat index…we all know that there is a BIG difference between 95°+ with high dew points and 95°+ with much lower dew points. In the summer of 2012…during the drought and all the 95-105° days….the humidity levels were very low…meaning a lower heat index…but we’re had runs of heat indices in the past of 105-115° with temperatures below 95° in cases…(you need 80°+ dew points to make that happen)…and yet that is not a heat wave? More people have issues with that type of weather than with the high temperature/low dew point combination.

Anyway…food for thought.

The building heat will continue into the weekend BUT there may be a break…as we will be on the southern edge of the jetstream over the weekend. This should allow some sort of front to approach the area Saturday night…this combined with the high moisture in the atmosphere and the high surface dew pints should mean an outbreak of severe storms towards the NW of KC later Saturday…then those storms should move and/or expand towards KC later Saturday evening/night.

It’s a good set-up but there are the usual issues. 1) storms coming in later at night with less instability to work with…2) how long will the heaviest rains from the storms last…3) will the storms start breaking up into pieces as opposed to being a consolidated mass of rain. All things to be considered.

There may be a couple of days (Sunday>Monday) where it’s still warm…but not as hot before we go back into the building heat again towards the holiday..

by the way we BETTER get something on Saturday night/early Sunday because there isn’t much coming beyond that for awhile it appears. We may get lucky on Monday next week with some storms as the heat starts to rebuild into the region into Tuesday but the general look is mostly dry after the better chances on Saturday night.

Our feature photo comes from Melissa Otto down towards Spring Hill, KS this morning…those clouds are called asperitas clouds…

Joe

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s

1 Comment

  • Nick

    I think the 95F thing is an okay rule of thumb for around here, it is true that its not really that far above avg. during the heat of summer, but we don’t usually get as far above avg. in the summer as we can in the cooler seasons( thankfully), but there will always be some ambiguity to it especially when you throw in the humidity aspect.