Joe’s Weather Blog: Grinding heat and then a small break (THU-6/28)

Yikes with the dew points…back into the mid 70s for that measurement and it’s miserable out there with the heat index running between 105-110°. More of the same (give or take a few degrees) expected through Saturday before a relieving cold front moves into the area later Saturday night…this should provide at least some relief and hopefully some rain as well to at least part of the area…but the longer term pattern is still mostly hot through the 1st 10 days of the new month ahead.



Forecast:

Tonight: Muggy with lows 75-80°

Friday: Ditto…highs 95-100°. Heat index near 110°

Saturday: Not a lot of change…90s

Sunday: Storms/leftover showers in the early AM then partly cloudy and hopefully back into the 80s



Discussion:

Well let’s start with the 2PM map…

That is a lot of heat…and of course with those dew points where they are…that gives us some pretty nasty heat index values. I’ve seen higher in KC…but by only about 5-10° or so. Here are the 2PM heat index values

Some 114° values mixed in there.

Today is the 19th day with highs of 90°+…our average in a year is 41. This is the 6th most in weather record data going back to the late 1880s.

There isn’t a lot of change coming…the last 100° day was back in September of 2013 @ KCI. Downtown has hit 100° several times since then…but not since August of 2016 (the 11th-101°).

The Excessive Heat Warning continues into later Saturday for the vast majority of the area.

Interesting to note that the MO River is near or in minor flood status because of all the ongoing drainage across the upper Midwest from NW IA into SD.

Some areas up there have had too much rain…while locally we desperately need some rain. You can see the % of normal anomalies on the map below.

This alignment of too much and not enough rain has expanded the drought conditions for many areas…

Although overall the state of KS has seen some decent improvement over the last 3 months or so.

Our next hope comes later Saturday into Sunday AM…the main emphasis though seems to be towards NW MO and NE KS…and as you go farther south…dwindling storms hopefully will give us something in the KC area. Good luck farther south of the Metro.

Model data regarding that scenario does show rain…but the EURO is more bullish, especially NW of KC and more bullish with the frontal movement as well.

This is through Sunday evening…

The GFS on the otherhand isn’t as bullish with the frontal movement and isn’t as aggressive with the storms in NW MO and NE KS. As a result we don’t get the front through the area till later Sunday with storms possible then.

My initial feeling is that the front that’s moving towards the area has to light up with convection later Saturday and between outflows and the progressive nature of the front we should have our best chance of rain later Saturday evening into Sunday AM with some relief coming from the extreme heat on Sunday.

Whatever relief occurs…it will be brief. Monday we start going up again and by Tuesday we’re probably back into the mid 90s and that is going to last for awhile along with the dry trends…so as I’ve mentioned for the last few days…we need some rain with this next front.

Our feature photo comes from ‎Ranae Llewellyn out towards Oak Grove, MO

Joe

 

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