Joe’s Weather Blog: Well the rain was nice…but it’s a drop in the bucket for many (SUN-7/1)

Good morning…not too many mornings that I wake up to the sound of rain falling, at least not in the last few weeks. I’ve gotten rain…but typically it’s been under 1/2″ or so and today will be no exception to that. Beggars can’t be choosy but the bottom line for many in the area is that the welcome rains this morning will essentially be evaporated away by Tuesday. The soil though will soak it in and the grass certainly needed whatever it could get from this weak front that’s going to be moving through the area.

The month of June will wind up 4.3° above average. The year thus far, we’re half way through, because of the chilly weather a couple of months ago…actually ranks 55th out of 130 years of records…so in the top half but just barely.



Forecast:

Today: Clouds and leftover rains moving away this morning…we should be in pretty good shape for most of the day after 10AM or so…at least from KC northwards. Highs today in the mid 80s (seasonable)

Tonight: Actually rather nice with lows by daybreak in the mid 60s

Monday: Mostly sunny and warm with highs near 90°

Tuesday: Hotter with highs in the low-mid 90s with heat index values back to near 100°



Discussion:

Our newscast schedule has been really messed up over the last couple of weeks and the weekends have been especially messy so I wanted to start this blog earlier in the day as opposed to the usual early afternoon weekend update so you can have an idea of what is going on.

We’re halfway done with 2018! It’s been a story on contrasts…

Overall for the 1st 6 months of the year, thanks to the rollercoaster ride for temperatures…down the crazy up…we rank 55th warmest out of about 130 years of reliable records. Top half and just barely.

Interesting to note that the last 2 months (since 5/1) rank as the 2nd warmest!

It’s been a fascinating ride…

Breaking it down farther…the 1st 2 months of the year were the 55th coldest…the next 2 months were the 15th coldest and the last 2 months were the 2nd warmest.

Moving on…

Yesterday was weird. The storms in the mid afternoon hours were interesting and somewhat unexpected. I’m still sort of trying to figure out how/why they formed. Obviously we became uncapped…we certainly had the heat and humidity but as near as I can tell there may have been a “gravity wave” that migrated south from the ongoing convection across the I-80 corridor region. A gravity wave in the atmosphere is akin to dropping a large rock in a lake and watching the ripples emanate away in a circular fashion. The same thing happens, especially during this time of the year from thunderstorm complexes. When I was looking at the satellite pictures later in the morning yesterday I noticed something along those lines. LOTs of times they’re harmless in the world of weather locally…but I think they helped to alter the mid level temperatures a bit and weakened the cap a bit earlier than expected. Then when one storm got going it through down some outflows which then fed new storm development and we were somewhat off to the races for a few hours with some localized heavy rains in parts of the metro. Many though saw little to nothing despite hearing all the thunder and seeing the rain off in the distance.

Here is a satellite replay from yesterday morning to about the time of the convection firing up in JOCO…note the line coming down form the NW to the SE…I believe that was a gravity wave. I didn’t notice any wind shifts at the surface so I don’t think it was a typical outflow boundary. It was something that was affecting the atmosphere above the surface.

Anyway, there aren’t many of us that go back and revisit unexpected events…but I always try to do that.

Then last night was extremely frustrating, mainly for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor. There were some big storms out there on the KS side and also north of I-70 on the MO side along the I-29 corridor. I was watching radar and every time I saw something heading into the heart of the Metro it just fell apart. Perhaps the mid afternoon convection altered our very local environment? Anyway watching radar and watching the rain fall apart as it moved closer to my house was not pleasant.

Some areas though got wayyyy to much rain. Over 6″ potentially according to doppler estimates. See that whitish speck up towards Atchison Co, KS?

That’s an area of 3-6″+ rains that fell. This created flooding around the Potter area and a few other localized parts NW of the KC metro area.

I did see some 4″+ totals from across the river in MO too. Speaking of which…nice turnaround occurring now in NW MO and NE KS regarding the rain situation. So dry for so long up there but lately they’re in catch-up mode. While not totally covered…as you can see above, lots of areas west of I-35 north of I-70 did well. KCI had about another 1″ overall from this event. St Joe had about .75″ or so.

Obviously rainfall amounts were VERY varied in the area.

From here though the news isn’t so great regarding rain…it may not be a perfectly dry week for all areas…the week will be characterized by near 95° days starting Tuesday. With that said this isn’t exactly the same as the set-up from the last several days regarding the heat. The mid level part of the atmosphere isn’t as warm…so the cap isn’t as strong as a couple of days ago. IF there are a few weak ripples moving through the region…through Wednesday they would be coming from the ESE to the WNW then heading into the end of the week the flow shifts more towards the WNW to the ESE…we could spark off a few scattered storms…but those chances will be dealt with day by day. At this point plan I’m planning on nothing really into next weekend…perhaps beyond.

Our EURO ensembles basically show minor fluctuations in the temperatures over the next 2 weeks…but the general trend is above average for quite some time it appears by some 5-10°. There will probably be some day to day fluctuations in this concept though.

 

Our feature photo comes from ‎Stacie Giglio Sipes‎  up towards Kearney, MO from a few days ago.

Joe

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1 Comment

  • Richard

    Thanks so much Joe
    Always enjoy your detailed blogs ! You are the man when it comes to stats !
    Didn’t get much rain here in Olathe. Mainly this morning.
    I know it is July in KC, but that chart makes me want to head north to AK where my brother-in-law lives. The humidity along with high temps gets harder to deal with as I get older.

    Speaking of 2nd warmest, according to the NWS “The stretch of temperatures we just had over the past 3 days at KC are the hottest 3 day period Kansas City has experienced in almost 6 years! Last time KC had a warmer 3 day period was 7/24/12 – 7/26/12.”