Joe’s Weather Blog: Be hopeful but get ready to be disappointed about the rain (THU-7/5)

Forecasting rain in drought conditions is a tricky business. The reason why we got to where we are is that we’ve missed out or not received as much rain as what the opportunities gave us. So we get to where we are because the heat and dryness are things that have to be overcome to get as much “bang for our buck” as we can to get decent moisture in the area. During this time of the year it’s common for areas to be running dry. The problem is that we’ve had some opportunities but it’s been a struggle to get widespread heavy moisture in the area. Some areas do OK for one event (like last weekend towards Weston and Atchison) then don’t for weeks at a time. For the KC metro we’ve had just barely enough rain to keep the yards barely green…but the clock is ticking on that and the forecast isn’t wet in the long term.



Forecast:

Today: Partly sunny and hot with a chance of storms this afternoon and early evening. Prepare to be disappointed that you don’t get the rains. Coverage won’t be the best with this activity. Hot and humid but not extreme with highs 90-95°.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with perhaps an isolated storm. Low overage. Lows in the 70s

Friday: Warm and humid but somewhat drier conditions spreading into the area in the afternoon. Highs near 90°

This weekend: More pleasant air (humidity wise) with cooler mornings and warm afternoons. Highs 85-90° with lows perhaps closer to 60° on Sunday morning.



Discussion:

Be hopeful…

The atmosphere is already a mess this morning. Various outflows and ripples in the flow from storms in up to the north in IA and NE have already complicated the storm chances in the KC area later today. Not eliminated them…just complicated them.

The cold front that is out there is also somewhat difficult to find this morning in terms of an apparent strong wind shift line. It’s probably still up towards NE and IA.

The dashed blue line is the cold front. The dashed black line is an “outflow” boundary that has moved into the region. This is a wind shift generated from the thunderstorms last night towards E NE and W IA that has moved our way and sort of gotten stuck in the Metro. This could be beneficial to us this afternoon…or it could hurt us as well.

The way it could be beneficial to us is IF it maintains itself and provides a focus and trigger during the heat of the afternoon when instability will be maximized with temperatures in the 90s and dew points in the 70s. The way it hurts is IF it just fades away and doesn’t create focus for storms to fire on. We’ll see about that. Another way it hurts is IF it keeps wandering south and keeps the winds more from the N/NE or so. Then there isn’t a lot for storms to focus on locally. They love wind shift lines in July. Wind shift lines help with something we call convergence…where air “runs into each other” and “collides”. The air then rises and you can get storms. This last scenario is a concern for widespread development.

I think there will be activity out there…we really won’t be capped this afternoon…but my thought process is how much coverage we’ll get from this and the likelihood that more may be disappointed than happy about the rain situation by 9PM or so tonight.

Here is the HRRR model for the day…it will auto-update via IA State.

This model loves it’s convection…to an abundance sometimes…this morning it’s NOT being very generous with storms…and that is problematic to me for coverage later today.

Here is radar from Pleasant Hill…

and finally the daytime satellite photo…this too will auto-update.

Something about this whole thing doesn’t “look right” to me despite a front coming in later today and tonight. Chaotic atmospheric set-ups aren’t helpful in short term storm predication either.

Again be hopeful…but be prepared to be disappointed, especially south of 36 highway.

Beyond today, while the weekend looks more pleasant…and next week looks hot again…think more low>mid 90s ahead…there isn’t really additional chances of rain coming down the pike.

The latest drought report came out this morning. No significant changes locally…as we teeter so close to severe drought status in the Metro itself. It’s surrounding us though and perhaps be next Thursday, assuming today is more dud than jackpot…we finally cross the line.

These 90 day anomalies aren’t to good to look at.

and when you see this over the next 15 days…no good either.

Things on average do get drier now but between today and the 19th or so we average close to 2.3″ of rain…that probably won’t happen unless things change bigly.

Our feature photo comes from Audrey Meservey towards Chillicothe, MO…of a lone cell that tried to turn into something yesterday…

I think it feel apart soon afterwards. Hope that isn’t a sign for today.

Joe

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s

2 comments