Joe’s Weather Blog: The streak is over…a little break…then the searing heat returns (FRI-7/30)

So it’s finally over…after 1767 days we broke the run of no 100° days @KCI…the “official” reporting station for KC. This was in some senses an artificial record. The “official” weather station for KC has moved numerous times over the last 130 years or so…mostly downtown (moves were made even downtown) then the downtown airport in the late 1940s…then eventually out to KCI in the early 1970s.

Other airports in the Metro had nudged 100° at other times over the past 5 years…but since KCI is the “official” weather station for KC…so it goes.

I don’t think we’re done with the 100s either this summer. While there will be a “break” in the searing heat…and perhaps a cool day mixed in as well over the next 5 days or so…I already see signs of another heat surge possible later next week or into next weekend that will need to be monitored.

By then though…hopefully we get some rain for the parched lands in the area.

The drought report came out yesterday and as I mentioned to you last Saturday I was expecting a worsening of conditions in the region and that finally occurred with this update released yesterday.

The Metro is now considered in “severe drought” conditions and obviously if you look around you, you can see the effects. Most readily on non-watered areas but even some irrigated areas are suffering as well.

So obviously we need water…and we need something a bit more beefy that what we’ve been seeing for the last couple of months. Some solid area-wide 1-2″ totals would be a welcome addition to the weather picture around here.

The chances of that happening are there, but perhaps are more focused north of KC. There is a front that’s going to be the main feature to track over the weekend. The front now is up towards the north of KC…it’s really more or less stationary but will slowly creep southwards as additional storms develop into NE and IA over the next 24 hours or so.

Hopefully over the weekend we get something from this…although once again it may be feat or famine type amounts since we’re relying on thunderstorms.

Actually in a sense with this front moving through…going south of KC..t.hen retreating north into next WED>THU at least we’ll have chances…and when it’s been so hot and dry for days on end…chances are something positive.

These chances will also help keep the temperatures more in the seasonable territory as opposed to the extreme heat category. Still pretty toasty but more reasonable and depending on the timing of the rains in the region between tomorrow and next Wednesday…there could be a sneaky cooler day in there too!

The rain, as I mentioned will be feat or famine…and the modeling won’t be able to necessarily pick out the winners or losers from this far in advance. You can see how they are trying though. The GFS is the most negative for the I-70 corridor…this is for the next 10 days!

 

Wow…IF that pans out…we have not only drought issues BUT when the heat returns in full blast…100s willbecome even more common.

The EURO does have some better hope for the metro…again for the next 10 days.

Better than nothing…and still mostly below average…but even this model has some near 1/2″ totals in parts of the Metro…that isn’t really that helpful in the big scheme of things.

The theme of my last couple of blogs is to have hope but prepare to be disappointed…that continues for the next 5 days or so.

My concern in the bigger picture is the the heat wave generator which will be moving towards the western 1/3rd of the US for the next 5-6 days will then migrate back into the Plains later next week…that brings the searing heat again with it. You can see that in the EURO forecast for later next week as we go up to about 18,000 feet. The jet stream is focused farther north, which is typical for mid July…

You can see how this affects the temperatures above the surface…

Yup…that’s nasty heat again and IF we don’t have moisture in the soil to evaporate out (leading to higher dew points and muggier air) that heat will be baking brown ground…and that means hotter temperatures.

It all depends on whether or not that heat wave generator comes back into the Plains. IF by chance it doesn’t and IF it maintains itself in the Rockies or more towards the 4 Corners region…perhaps we don’t get the full brunt of the heat again. There is modeling that shows this aspect of things…and it’s an important consideration. This would tend to keep the searing heat more in check…allow rains to become more of an issue and in general create conditions that would be more tolerable in the big picture.

The EURO Ensembles are aboard with this…keeping the searing heat farther west of the region…again an important consideration.

I’m on vacation in northern MI…we’ve done a lot of things, driven a lot around the area too. The other day we were up in the northern part of the Leelanau Peninsula towards the grand Traverse Lighthouse.

It’s cooler up here for sure…yesterday while you were at 100° (or higher) we were around 75° and I needed a golf pullover after 7PM…so a picture from that side trip is the photo of the day for you.

Joe

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s