Joe’s Weather Blog: Nothing set in stone from a rain perspective (FRI-7/27)
Good afternoon…not too bad out there today with temperatures heading up into the mid 80s before our Friday is done. The rain risk is small but not zero…and if something isolated were to form…it wouldn’t shock me over the next few hours. Nothing widespread is expected. The weekend though offers better chances…although some may get more than 1-2″ while others again are left lacking. There will be complexes of rain/storms coming towards the region…where exactly they go though remains to be seen and that is the reason my forecast confidence is low for the upcoming weekend.
In the most general of terms…I think the better rain/storm chances will be in the AM>Lunch or so. I don’t think it will be a washout of a weekend…but by the same token a plan B may be needed depending on your outdoor plans.
Tonight: Fair skies and pleasant. There may be some scattered showers out there in the wee hours of Saturday morning. Lows in the 60-65° range.
Saturday: Rain chances start the day…and really it just depends on what happens in NE (mostly) overnight. We should be on a drying trend in the afternoon. Highs will be dependent on sunshine. More clouds…and we may stick to the 70s…more sun…80-85° is doable.
Sunday: Pretty much the same although there may be a better chance of AM activity…and as a result a more struggling type day for temperatures.
Check out yesterday’s more astronomical blog concerning the Mars situation. It was definitely out there last night and will be again tonight.
Onto the weather aspect…although I might be more happy talking about the planets…
I hate being vague…drives me nuts…others seem to have no problem with it but for what I do…and how I try to predict things that don’t exist…sometimes vague is the best I’ve got.
As I mentioned at the start of the blog..rain chances are the trick over the weekend. My feeling is that the AM’s will offer the best chances. With that said…I can’t rule out afternoon drops either…at least through 3PM.
The trick is that we’re going to be watching thunderstorm complexes develop towards the NW of KC…they will be tracking towards the SSE and the SE. Therein lies one of the rubs…SSE movements won’t really be wet for us locally…especially if the storms, like the ones that are trying to form as I start this blog…are located where they’re located. Here is regional radar…and again for KC to get better rain chances I’d prefer to see some activity more towards the Lincoln, NE area.
I’ll include the short range model…the HRRR although it’s been a bit rough too…via IA State.
There are many issues about storms getting to us…including some pretty dry surface air that the storms will be running into as they move towards the SE. Also of note is the thicker moisture in the atmosphere towards the west of the area…this is shown by looking for the higher PW (Precipitatable Water) values…
PW refers to the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere up to a certain height. Typically near 15-18,000 feet or so. Notice in the above map (at least this afternoon) the thicker moisture is towards central KS…storms love to run into the thicker moisture.
In addition the storms that are developing in the western Plains should be severe…hail/winds are the main threats but a few tornadoes aren’t out of the question out there for the later afternoon/evening hours…you typically don’t see a lot of “moderate” risks for severe storms in the Plains at the end of July
Again though, if your’e reading the blog today…you can sort of surmise the forecast movement. More NNW to SSE for the activity developing out there.
Again we need more stuff to fire towards central and eastern NE…and perhaps north central KS…for us to have better chances.
I’m just not comfortable saying it won’t rain Saturday morning at this point.
Same goes for Sunday morning. and especially Monday. So there are a multiple series of chances…and hopefully at least one…perhaps a couple will pan out for those who want some rain.
It’s been interesting over the past couple of weeks or so for parts of the area…while MANY are VERY dry…things are looking better in parts of the KC Metro…especially eastern JOCO and even into wards of the MO side as well.
Notice that area of decent totals…running across parts of the KC area…(last 14 days)
From roughly SE JOCO through Cass Co into Henry and Benton Co. On the flip side are the areas of green and blue in the above map…which are roughly in the area of the extreme drought.
I did some research today on the corn/soybean crops…and how they’re progressing across KS/MO…and needless to say…not as good as in the last several years.
Let’s start with the MO/KS side…and with corn…
Notice how the good>excellent category is lower than the last few years according to the USDA
Notice as well where MO typically harvests the most corn…in the darker blue counties below.
As far as soybeans go…
Again both states having a rougher go of things so far in 2018.
This is an issue for many reasons but because of the falling crop prices…and now lessor yields from the same fields…farmers are having a rough go of things…they’re going to get less out of the ground and they’re going to be paid less for it as well. Soybeans especially have been hit hard from a price standpoint.
That YTD (year to date) number will definitively hurt.
Here’s hoping for more rain for those who want it.
Our feature photo comes from Wyatt Hamilton out towards Topeka this morning…nice example of asperitas clouds.