Joe’s Weather Blog: Rain chances still on track (SUN-8/12)

Today will probably be the 45th day this year with highs 90° or higher officially at KCI. That sounds like a lot…and I guess it it is. The average for an entire calendar year is 41. What’s somewhat interesting is how the recent years have stacked up. In 1934 we had more through 8/12 with a whooping 71. More on that in the discussion.

The other news of the day continues to be the smoke in the skies…which was dealt with yesterday and the rain chances starting later Monday night and especially Tuesday. This has been talked about for several days and there is no change (a good thing I think) concerning my thinking about how this plays out.



Forecast:

Tonight: Clear and mild with lows near 70°

Monday: Mostly sunny AM then partly cloudy PM. Hot and a bit more humid with highs near 90°. There will be the risk of showers/storms south of KC later in the day spreading northwards in the evening before fading at night.

Tuesday: Off/On rain in the area…there may be several hours of breaks between the rain chances however. Just an iffy day. Highs will be closer to 80° with 70s for highs VERY possible IF there is enough rain/clouds in the region.



Discussion:

So let’s start this out with some historical perspective. always important when folks say…I don’t remember it ever being this hot…or something along those lines.

Here is a look at the # of 90° or higher days in KC over the years…through today…let’s add 1 more for 2018 since were at 87° at 12PM.

I bring that chart up because look at #3…#6…and #7…all memorable, somewhat recent hot summers. 2012 obviously, the year of another big (and more widespread drought) is certainly way up there.

Again the yearly average is 41.

If you’re wondering about the highest numbers in a calendar year…here you go.

So we won’t even get close to the top 10. As a matter of fact, we may not get there this coming week, although it’s possible tomorrow if the clouds hold off long enough.

The reason…clouds and rain chances. There hasn’t been a lot of change in what I’m expecting. So feel free to check out yesterday’s blog here for some additional thoughts.

The soon to be system is now starting to develop in Texas. What a cloudy and cooler weekend it’s been down there.

If you look carefully you can see some small “spins” in the clouds developing around the soon to be upper level low. Look near the Red River SW of Oklahoma City…look towards SW KS…see those broad counter clockwise spins to the clouds…those are what we call vorticity maxs. Those areas represent lifting mechanisms to the atmosphere.

A lot of rain in Texas today…notice the effect on temperatures…the red numbers in the map below are the 12PM temperature reports.

There is an upper 60° noon temperature near ABI…or Abilene. That’s about 20° below average! Look at the map in the upper left side below. Graphic from Penn State

So over the next few days that system will migrate northwards…with it comes more moisture at the surface and through the atmosphere…enhancing the rain rates in parts of the area.

Also notice what’s happening down in southern OK now…

There are some scattered areas of showers/storms ahead of the main feature in TX. Some of that same look to the radar could happen tomorrow in the far southern part of the viewing area and spreading northwards in the evening. So there is the potential of some scattered showers/storms tomorrow night closer to KC. The activity should weaken after sunset tomorrow though…so we’ll see how far north they can actually get.

Then Tuesday will just be an iffy day. I don’t think it will rain all day…there should be breaks in the rain. IF there are enough breaks in the clouds…allowing temperatures to get to 80° or so..the atmosphere will become unstable and allow additional storms/showers to develop. Basically there will be several opportunities for rain on Tuesday.

I still have little confidence in precise rain amount forecasts for this…but since this is the blog…here are some computer forecasts…first the NAM model

The hi-res NAM model…note how since this is a higher resolution model…it’s picking out some rather high and very localized totals…and you can almost see how the upper level storm is captured north of Manhattan with the circulation of heavy amounts around it.

The GFS…

There are concerns with this whole thing…and one of the reasons why, this summer I’ve been saying…be hopeful and try and not get disappointed by what amounts you get because this isn’t something that’s going to give the WHOLE region a lot of rain. There will be lessor totals from this…and the concern would be the lessor totals would be closer to the core of the drought areas on the MO side especially towards the NE of KC.

On the KS side though…I’m more and more optimistic that this will actually help out for areas that are pretty darn dry. Not break the drought…just help it out.

In a sense some may actually want some rather large chunks of sunshine at some point on Tuesday…this would help create unstable air and additional storm developments. Even a small risk of some hail with the storms.

Clouds may linger for awhile on Wednesday with some early leftover showers. We may be able to spark of some isolated activity in the afternoon but the convergence will be weak.

We also need to watch Friday for the additional chances of rain moving through.

Rob Reeves shows us some nice mammatus clouds that were rather prevalent a couple of days ago.

Joe

 

 

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