Joe’s Weather Blog: Heat…rain…relief…heat and Lane (SAT-8/25)

Wanted to start this blog with something special that will be released to you Sunday afternoon at around 2:15. I’m heading to St Louis later today for a weather conference (National Weather Association). Tomorrow I’m am giving a presentation on something that I’ve written about in the past and discussed with you as well…and that is what I consider the “overuse” of severe thunderstorm warnings. I’ll be essentially sharing the entire presentation with you in the afternoon including the vast majority of slides that I’m using. I’ll be presenting all of this to my colleagues at about 1:45 PM…then a MASSIVE 2600 word blog will be published at 2:15 or so. I look forward to you checking it out. Pour yourself a cup of coffee and let me know what you think!



Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and muggy with lows in the mid 70s

Sunday and Monday: Hot and humid with highs near 95°. Windy as well with gusts to 30 MPH possible

Tuesday: Hot and humid BUT a cold front will move in later in the day with storm/rain chances moving through as well. Can’t promise all will get the rain…but hopefully this will play out correctly. This is a pretty strong front so I’m expecting a nice drop to comfortable weather on Wednesday.



Discussion:

The hotter weather has returned to the region and with many areas seeing over 3-6″ of rain in the last month+ or so the soils are able to evaporate moisture again and as a result the dew points are pretty ripe out there.

Dew points are generally in the 70s and upper 60s and should remain so for the next several days. There will be more wind out there as well as the winds in the bottom 5-7,000 feet of the atmosphere are going to be blowing pretty good into Tuesday.

Temperatures should exceed 90° and should be closer to 95° into Tuesday. The heat won’t be excessive…remember we’ve lost about 94 minutes of daylight since the 1st day of summer and that does have an impact, along with the increased surface moisture and more of a southerly wind component to keeping temperatures from getting out of hand usually in late August. As a matter of fact we have the same amount of daylight today as we do on April 18th! Don’t get me wrong…still hot and with the heat index around 100° for the next few days…it will absolutely feel like summer out there!

This hot weather continues into Tuesday…then there should be relief. A cold front will be moving through the region and that should drop temperatures for the middle of the week for about 36 hours or so.

Here is a look at the NAM model for Tuesday at around 7PM…

There will be a lot of moisture at the surface and also aloft through the atmosphere so the front will have moisture to work with. The front should come through at the right time of day as well during peak heating and there is going to be a lot of instability out there…

The end result, assuming the front timing is close to later in the day, is that there is the potential of a line of strong storms…maybe some severe weather as well…

Obviously still a long ways away but something to put on your “radar” screen.

The relief will last about 36 hours…into Thursday afternoon…but as the cooler air moves away…and the hotter air returns heading into NEXT weekend we may see some storms develop sometime on Thursday into Thursday night.

Onto the Lane situation. What is catching the most interest is what was the main fear from this storm…and that is NOT the wind…but the rain and flooding. Mountainous areas…combined with lift up the slopes of those same mountains…and with a juiced atmosphere are all perfect ingredients…that when a tropical cyclone is mixed into the cake…you get a LOT of flooding and that’s what we’ve seen thus far.

Rainfall amounts are astronomical as you might imagine. The saving grace about this tremendous rainfall is that it fell over a more sparsely populated area of the Big Island itself and not Oahu.

Look carefully…there are some 45″ totals in there…with more falling. That is about TWICE the amount of rain/moisture that KC has received so far this year!

Hilo airport received over 15″ of rain yesterday. That broke their daily record by almost 13″!

Over the past 3 days they’ve had 31.85″ of rain (not including today)…that too is a record. Record data goes back to 1949.

Here are some other notable reports over the past 2-3 day or so…and again it’s still raining there because Lane, while a shell of it’s former self…is more or less not moving.

OK that’s it for today…gain remember massive weather blog tomorrow…I’m serious…it was one of the longest ones I’ve ever written. I can think of one other that was longer.

Our feature photo comes from ‎Melissa Hines‎

Joe

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