Joe’s Weather Blog: The edge of a deluge (SAT-9/1)

Good afternoon…after a few isolated storms/showers this morning…skies of cleared out nicely and it’s getting warmer and warmer. Temperatures today will top off around 90° and with dew points in the 70s…it’s a muggy start to the holiday weekend. Overall dry weather will continue for most of the weekend and while it may NOT be perfectly dry the whole weekend, it will generally be OK for most outdoor activities. We’ll watch Monday for somewhat better chances but again not all will be affected.

In other news…there is going to be a ton of rain towards the NW of KC…and that will need to be monitored. Indications, as I mentioned yesterday, are that this will stay towards the NW of KC…again though it will be awfully close and how various outflows etc affect our rain chances this coming week will be determined.



Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and mild. The average low is 64°…we should be above that with lows in the 70-75° range with a somewhat breezy south wind.

Sunday: Sort of like today, with perhaps more clouds and a few pop-ups possible in the AM then partly cloudy, breezy and hot with highs well into the 80s

Monday: Variable clouds with some PPM storms possible. Highs in the 80s.



Discussion:

I wanted to start this blog off with a poll…about something that I’ve been kicking around for a month or so…and that would be a KC Weather Podcast…perhaps called something like Joe’s Weather World, as I refer to things on Friday mornings when we take a deep dive into the world of weather during Fox 4 News at 9AM. What I’m trying to gauge is interest in it. My thoughts are it would be a mostly weekly feature…perhaps recorded on Fridays that would involve what’s going on in the world of weather…perhaps the tropics or winter forecasts or whatever. It wouldn’t be a daily forecast type thing…because I would want it to be somewhat relevant at other times of the air. I would, on occasion, bring in some guests to talk about the weather enterprise and communications within our industry. Anyway it’s been on my mind for a month or so so here goes…let me know your feelings.

Thanks for that.

OK onto the weather as we watch a frontal system that is hung up across the Plains.

As you can see above the 90° isotherm is up into central KS. Underneath that isotherm temperatures are 90° or higher.

The boundary that will not move much for awhile is located up towards NE/IA and that boundary will light up with storm and locally heavy rains over the next few days.

Where that boundary goes will be a key in either us seeing heavier rains or us seeing more sporadic rains. The trouble is that various complexes of storms will develop along that boundary and then influence (if they’re big enough) the atmosphere and the weather around the region. It could be something as simple as clouds…it could be something a bit more complicated like outflows that push southwards and then create storms locally in the KC region. It’s impossible to figure that out at this point except to say that it’s very close for comfort and to be alert for changing rain chances over the next 10 days.

The other thing is repeated bouts of training heavy rains will crank out the rain up there…and it won’t take much to see rain tallies of close to 10″ (or more) in parts of NE and IA. Take a look at the GFS idea below…this is over the next almost 10 days. NW MO and NE KS may be VERY vulnerable to flooding rains.

Another issue with all of this is the SW flow that we will be under for awhile…and if there are any disturbances that move closer to us…at this point most of them may be more focused towards NE/IA and hence they heavier rain totals forecast by the models up there.

Also there is a weak wave towards the LA coast that may make a run towards the north on Tuesday. That could also help to irritate the atmosphere and allow convection to bubble up with some heavy downpours.

So there will be opportunities but how we play in this remains somewhat to be seen. Potential yes…but will it deliver to KC? Odds favor more towards the NW of the region.

Thanks for taking the poll question.

Our feature photo comes from Kerri Horn…note the rain shaft and the “hole” in the cloud from where that shaft is located.

Joe

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