Joe’s Weather Blog: We’re in no-mans land for rain right now (MON-9/3)

Good Monday morning…basically it looks like today will be similar to what we’ve experienced all weekend in KC…variable clouds with some spotty storms possible later today. The atmosphere is less capped today compared to yesterday and with temperatures in the 85-90° range…something could pop later today in random fashion…just about anywhere really. Meanwhile flooding is ongoing across parts of north-central KS where 5-10″ of rain has fallen in the Manhattan region over the past 24 hours. More to come out there while KC is sort of in this strange void right now. Good for outdoor plans though and the weekend forecast for KC was on point as I was downplaying the rain chances for KC proper all weekend. I know many heard different things from different sources…apps etc. A lack of a focus for something to form from led to that accurate forecast…the models were pretty bad overall though and I’m not sure they’ve got a great handle on things yet.



Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds with perhaps some isolated PM storms. Highs well into the 80s with muggy conditions

Tonight: Fair skies and mild with lows 70-75°

Tuesday: No great changes with highs well into the 80s

Wednesday: There is actually a heavy rain set-up shaping up that needs to be watched. May struggle to get above 80° if that happens



Discussion:

KC is in a weird spot right now with rain. There has been heavy rains and flooding off to the west as a series of disturbances have come up from the SW…we’ve been far enough to the east that really, aside from some small and quick hitting cells…it’s been perfectly dry this weekend (so far). It’s been muggy, there is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere but without a trigger…it’s tough to get something organized.. I’m not sure what the trigger will be today or tomorrow, hence any rain/storms that form will be in haphazard fashion and why, at this point I continue to say not to change your plans.

The Kansas Mesonet has lit up with rains to the west over the past 24 hours…

Here are some of the higher totals via CoCoRaHS…note the numbers around the Manhattan area

A bunch of rain where we were expecting a bunch of rain all weekend.

Again KC is to far east to be getting in on this…

There are some other weather related stories that may or may not factor into the rain chances locally this week…and on the assumption that nothing widespread happens locally today or Tuesday, aside from whatever air mass type storms can develop…can something else help to “stir” the pot…perhaps from the tropics?

These are always somewhat rare things for this part of the country but there is one system towards the NW Gulf now and newly named Gordon off the SW FL Coast that will be monitored. Perhaps the cores of those systems won’t affect us but they will continue a moisture transport into the Plains and in the end that may be enough.

Moisture from a persistent wave in the NW Gulf will be coming northwards, especially later tomorrow into the KC area. That wave is showing up in the regional radar down towards the TX/LA coastline.

I want to show you how the EURO model handles this initial surge of thick tropical moisture. Note the more reddish colors coming northwards…that is some thick and juicy air coming our way later tomorrow into Wednesday. I’d be shocked at this point IF that doesn’t produce some pretty heavy downpours somewhere out there.

On Wednesday there is also a front that will be coming in from the northwest. Again ingredient to the potential of storms and locally heavy rains.

Then there is Gordon which has formed and may intensify over the next few days as it comes towards the northern Gulf region.

The TPC track has this coming close enough to us later in the week that it would give us more rain. This though is VERY iffy and if it’s deflected more towards the SE of here…it could be a bigger deal for southern MO than this far north. It’s worth monitoring though.

Another note…those water temperatures on that part of the Gulf are awfully warm…this thing may overachieve especially as it comes closer to shore in the next 48 hours or so. Hurricane watches have now been issued for parts of the Gulf coast

Model guidance brings what’s left of the circulation towards Tulsa later Friday then into central MO over the weekend. This may not be a good Lake weekend IF that were to happen, especially Saturday.

It’s going to be fascinating to see what’s left of the drought over the next 2 weeks…we’ve chewed away at it nicely on the KS and MO side over the past 10 days or so…

So let’s leave you with radar from Pleasant Hill.

The latest HRRR model…this should auto-update for you. For timing purposes…12Z is 7AM…18Z is 1PM…00Z is 7PM…and 06Z is 1AM…

Let’s go out on a humorous note…at least for this dog who was having fun with a dust devil

BriE with our feature photo of the day…

Joe

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