Joe’s Weather Blog: And the drips continue (FRI-9/7)

It’s a dreary afternoon and the weather drearies will continue into the start of the weekend…although Saturday, while unseasonably cool will be drier overall compared to the weather out there as I type this blog.

Announcement: The weather podcast…Joe’s Weather World is a go…look for it later next week. About 10-20 minutes worth of weather whys and wisdom from yours truly. I have no idea how this is going to go…so let’s see how I start this next week.



Forecast:

Tonight: Rain slowly tapers to areas of drizzle and mist. Some fog as well with lows near 60°

Saturday: Sort of a raw gray day with drizzle/mist in the AM through lunch or so…the mainly cloudy in the afternoon with a few showers scattered about the region. Temperatures may not make 70° and may be stuck in the 60s all day. Of note is the record cool high for tomorrow of 64° set back in 2008.

Sunday: Getting better with perhaps some morning lingering clouds then clearing with highs in the 70-75° range…actually a nice afternoon.



Discussion:

Next week will be drier! Also it will be getting warmer too…but nice late summer weather is on tap for the region from Monday onwards.

Now with that said there will be some big weather stories next week…including the potential for a land falling hurricane in the SE part of the country as the data today is increasingly pointing in that direction

Obviously this is still a long ways off…but I I was living in the Carolina’s and northwards…I’d be getting a bot more concerned and getting a hurricane plan in place now, while this is still days away.

Florence is the concern for the SE part of the country and while it’s been “downgraded” to a strong tropical storm, and while it’s still out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean…it continues to move mostly towards the west and will have a tough time heading northwards due to a blocking high north of the storm. See the blog from yesterday for more information.

So notice in the NHC update above…that even by next Wednesday morning it’s still hundreds of miles from the coastline…however the surf will be increasing in a big way it appears…

This model is actually farther north with the highest surf because of the position of the storm…

and the winds will start going up as well along the coastline sometime later Tuesday into Wednesday.

The concern is that, while the storm isn’t that strong now…it will start getting together again through the weekend as it moves away from the shear that was cutting off the top part of the storm and blowing the best convection away from the storms core.

There are still questions revolving around the exact track of the storms core. Will it recurve before hitting land? Will it strength up to it’s potential (and there is a lot of potential)? Will it just steam on through landfall? These will be worked on next week.

The bottom line for the hurricane’s strength later this weekend and next week…is getting away from an atmosphere that has been pretty hostile to maintaining the strength of the storm. Take a look towards 50W in longitude…this afternoon the graphic below illustrates some 30-40 MPH wind shear ripping at the storm…notice farther east though…towards 60 and 70W…the wind shear drops off…this would be a more favorable environment for the storm to strengthen again. This was a 130 MPH or so…category 4 hurricane a couple of days ago. It can do that again.

One of the models used to help in the shear forecast is the SHIPS model…note how it has a lot of shear 20-30 MPH winds now through later Saturday morning…then the shear really drops Saturday night into Sunday…hence the storm may start strengthening again.

So A LOT to talk about as far as this goes for next week.

Meanwhile back home…just sort of blah out there through tomorrow.

After tomorrow…not sure when the next rain will come really…and it will get hot again (by September standards) with highs running into the 85-90° later next week into the weekend. The green grass…wet ground and a diminishing sun angle should conspire to keep highs maxing out before going to crazy. Also of note is the muggy weather that will be coming our way later in the week and next weekend…yes more summer is coming and more sweating is coming too!

Our feature photo comes from Charley Caron (@Charleyivy46) down towards Garnett, KS where the rain has been very heavy today! Doppler indications are 3-5″ may have fallen down there.

Joe

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