Joe’s Weather Blog: Florence is a thing…plus the gloomy days get better (SAT-9/8)

Good morning…early blog for you today since I have about 30 minutes this morning to crank this out. As soon as I’m done…I’ll be heading to Old Settler’s Days and participating in the big parade. The biggest in Kansas from what I understand. The weather isn’t the greatest but it can be much worse. There will still be drizzle and mist through lunch…maybe even a few showers…but that should do it for the rain…and beyond today we may stay dry for quite some time.



Forecast:

Today: Clouds…sprinkles…drizzle…mist…a few showers…and cool by September standards with highs only around 65°

Tonight: Mainly cloudy with lows in the 50s

Sunday: Becoming partly sunny and milder with highs in the 70s

Monday: Great with highs closer to 80°



Discussion:

Not a lot to talk about weather wise for our area as we’re still fighting this leftover moisture…a combination of many things really including the remains of Gordon which really are going to be a much larger issue, because of flooding concerns, towards the IL/IN area today. It’s not often you see a HIGH risk of flooding…but we have that happening towards the east of the region later today.

You can see the ball of moisture from Gordon…moving towards the OH Valley region

Meanwhile for us…we still have a lot of gray weather. Here is the visible satellite picture of the region…this will turn black as the sun sets tonight.

We may still fight some rain drops today…into the afternoon for some but the better rains will be on the MO side.

Temperatures this morning are an issue..it’s not going to change much today. Our high so far was 64° and IF we don’t get above that…it will tie a record cold high for today’s date.

Starting tomorrow through next week…much better though.

Onto the tropics where there are several features out there today…on the Atlantic and Pacific side.

The main concern is Florence…

While still a tropical storm this morning…it’s definitely looking more healthy now that it’s moving away from a hostile atmospheric set-up.

As it moves farther west…the waters are more than supportive for strengthening…as a matter of fact their warmer than average by several degrees..all the way to the Carolina’s.

That information is troubling along with the various model forecasts that are out there…all indicating a significant impact (whether direct landfall (most likely) or glancing blow (possible) )

The EURO guidance has been the most consistent in a sense…doesn’t mean it’s perfect though and while still about 5 days away from a possible US landfall…it’s final track could be 100-200 miles off (or more). Here is a look at the ensemble runs…showing the large variation…hundreds of miles from north to south by the time the storm would make US landfall (if it even does).

Here is the GFS model range of possibilities…

If I were from Jacksonville. FL northwards towards the Delmarva region…I’d be starting to think about what I would do if a category 4 hurricane was heading my way in a few more days.

Finally Hawaii may be dealing with a weaker Olivia in a few more days as well. So later Tuesday into Wednesday it’s Olivia and then Thursday into Friday it’s Florence…

Our feature photo comes from ‎Mandye Boor of a great rainbow in the skies above KC!

Joe

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