Joe’s Weather Blog: Strong cold front this afternoon (TUE-9/25)

Good Tuesday morning…our weather is going through some gyrations this week and today will be the 1st day where we see a real cold “fall” cold front come through the region. Typically it’s somewhat tough to get falling temperatures behind a cold front (during the day at least) during the summer months because fronts are typically weaker without a strong temperature contrast. Today, hopefully thanks to some sunshine warming things up ahead of the front…we should see a 15° drop in temperatures (give or take) within a couple of hours time with the wind shift coming this way. The timing is during the middle of the afternoon.



Forecast:

Today: Muggy with temperatures close to 75-80° before the front arrives. The front should arrive towards 3-5PM or so from north to south. This will send temperatures from near 80° down into the mid 60s in about 1 hour. There is a chance of some showers/storms as well but no severe weather is expected in the KC area. A blustery evening with readings in the 60° range is expected too

Wednesday: Sunny and nice with highs in the 60s after morning lows in the 40s(!)

Thursday: Sunny and milder with highs in the 70s. SW winds of 10-20 MPH



Discussion:

Before I get to our weather…a note…please make sure you follow me on FB at Joe Lauria Fox 4 Meteorologist for the latest in the Aches and Pains situation. This popular feature that I do on the air and on FB has been shared 1000s of times already this year and with fall here…and the pressure gyrations that the region always sees…it may help you or someone you know feel better!

Also I wanted to show you this. Interesting note regarding the overnight low temperatures at the Downtown KC airport. That would be the fact that in 2018…we tied a record for the most mornings with low temperatures 70° or higher.

84 times ties us with 1980. That’s impressive! Also of note are the other 5 years, this century, with lows 70°+ in Downtown KC.

I wanted to see how this stacked up over the years…so I went back to 1980 and discovered that there has been a change (an increase) of about 4 nights per year that the low in DOWNTOWN KC stays at least 70° or higher (30 year moving average comparing 1980 to 2018).

The current average of 55 days though is actually a couple of days less than the average back in the late 90s when it was around 57 days.

OK onto the weather situation…at 8AM here is the cold front towards the west of the KC region…

The temperatures are in RED…note the drop off between the 70s and the lower 40s from east to west across the cold front. That cooler weather flows in this afternoon and tonight.

With the transition…there could be some rain. Scattered showers are possible with the front itself…with additional showers possible behind the front too. The overall coverage may not be that great though…and even if it is…the amounts won’t be overly impressive.

Here is the HRRR model that should auto update all day for you. 18Z is 1PM…00Z is 7PM…06Z is 1AM tomorrow.

Also here is radar to keep an eye on…

A stronger cold front is due on Friday…and this will send temperatures even lower Friday afternoon and evening…heads up for all the Friday evening football games and also for the Royals game too!

There may be some patchy frost in Northern MO as well on SAT AM.

Saturday will be a pretty chilly day it appears overall with highs struggling to about 60°! We’ll warm up on Sunday though

We won’t have a freeze though…this NWS graphic shows that typically we wait till mid>late October in the region for the 1st freeze. The graphic below shows the average last freeze and the average 1st freeze.

Overall though the pattern isn’t overly wet at this point…just some fleeting chances coming. Fall can be a tough time for us to get beneficial rain around these parts…so far that seems to be playing out. The last couple of SEPT>NOV years have been a bit rough when it comes to getting decent rains (at least officially up at KCI).

Couple of other notes…the flooding from Florence, in some areas, is actually getting worse today. Parts of SC are under new mandatory evacuation orders…from the air…this drone video shows just a tiny sample of the devastation.

Just so much water…

That’s it for today…no blog tomorrow.

Our feature photo comes from @denzblogz via twitter

Joe

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