Joe’s Weather Blog: Fall…then summer…then fall…then… (THU-9/27)

Good Thursday afternoon. A perfect 10 weather day out there with temperatures in the 70s and dew points that are around 40°.  Can’t ask for much better weather. If you want to know why so many people live out in the desert…this is what it’s like during the winter out there…during the summer…a different story ( :) ). Our weather locally though will be changing in a big kind of way over the next several days…it’s about to get very dreary and damp…and while the rain won’t amount to a lot (and we need some real moisture)…it will be a nuisance later Friday into the start of the weekend. Saturday will be a changeable and varied day from north to south and while some will be mild…many will be chilly…enough that you actually may need to turn on the furnace!



Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and seasonably cool…lows in the upper 40s to around 50°

Friday: Changeable with brief AM warming then falling PM temperatures as the clouds thicken and lower behind the front that moves through around lunch or so. Temperatures may pop into the 60s then fall back into the 50s with increasingly blustery conditions developing and drizzle and mist developing later in the day.

Saturday: Dreary with showers/mist/drizzle likely, especially from KC northwards. Highs 50-55° on the northside of KC…to 60-65° on the far south part of the Metro. See the map in the discussion. There will be a front stalled in the area…and how that front wavers north or south will determine the temperatures.

Sunday: After a cool start with some clouds…the warm front should pop northwards, perhaps in the afternoon, placing the vast majority of the area in the warmer and more humid air once again with highs near or even above 80° by later in the day.



Discussion:

My goodness it’s going to be fascinating to watch the next few days play out. A cold front is going to progress towards KC tomorrow. As it does so it will be moving into a somewhat warmer air mass, that IF there was more moisture around…would support the creation of thunderstorms. However with dew points struggling to recover (typical for many situations like this in the fall and early Spring as well) it’s going to be tough to get many storms with the actual front itself.

With that said…areas south of KC…let’s say towards the US 50 corridor from Sedalia westwards towards and south of Harrisonville actually could see something try and fire up in the early to mid afternoon as the front encounters a bit more moisture.

The bottom line though is that when the winds switch towards the NW/N…cooler air infiltrates the area. The hi-res NAM shows a possible outcome tomorrow…

10AM…

2PM…

6PM…

You can see how the temperatures really head down hill before the evening rush hour is over with…especially from I-70 northwards.

That leaves us with this set-up on Saturday morning…chilly.

By then the front will be down towards I-44 and stalled…as the day unfolds it will gradually retreat northwards as a warm front. How far north it gets later in the day as it runs into drizzle/mist/showers cooling the air on the northern side of the front and reinforcing the cool air mass on top of KC remains to be seen. Usually, cold air wins this fight. Definitively in the winter months…somewhat more in the fall and spring months.

Notice as the front tries and retreats farther north…temperatures on the south side of KC are heading back up…this map is for 4PM Saturday…about a 15>20+° spread from north to south in the KC Metro area.

So that is complicated…have a plan B ready…because IF the front is a bot farther south…which is possible…then we’ll be fighting more of the drizzle/mist into the afternoon as well.

On Sunday we should see the front retreat farther north and actually the process may start happening later Saturday night…so that temperatures conceivably start rising near daybreak Sunday…and we may well end up in the 80s on Sunday.

Then another front may try and wiggle our way later Monday (maybe a spark for some isolated storms)…and then quickly retreat northwards on Tuesday…so we essentially go into a warm and humid air mass for MON>WED at least and maybe Thursday too. It won’t be a record breaker…but a run to near 90° is possible…especially on Wednesday.

The other issue with all of this…and not surprising when we are teeing up fast fronts and quick moving temperature regimes during the fall is that it’s getting tough to get appreciable rains from all of these changes. I bring this up because the latest drought report came out today…essentially showing no changes from last week to this week.

There has been a reduction overall over the past few weeks however…9/4 left and 9/25 right

 

Meanwhile…there is a rather strong hurricane in the Pacific…I bring this up because it may bring some significant flooding to the desert SW next week.

What’s left of the core of the storm will go a long ways to determining the axis of heaviest rains…but here is the EURO idea…

and the GFS idea…a bit farther east…plausible as well. This is all through next Wednesday morning.

It’s possible that some of that moisture may try and work it’s way towards the Plains next Thursday…but at this point that is a very low confidence scenario.

Our own Rob Collins with the feature photo of the day!

Joe

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