Joe’s Weather Blog: So much happening Saturday (FRI-9/28)

Good afternoon…a soon to be changing sky as I type this blog up with moisture coming up from the south…moisture streaming in from the north and a wedge of sunshine barely holding on. Temperatures have about peaked as the winds are now gusting to 30 MPH or so on the north side. Meanwhile tomorrow is still going to be a highly variable day, from a temperature standpoint in the KC region. There are about a bizillion fall festivals happening tomorrow…and the weather will vary from north to south.



Forecast:

Tonight: Lower and thicker clouds develop with mist/drizzle developing as well later this evening. Lows in the 40s

Saturday: Misty and drizzly during the 1st part of the day then drier in the afternoon. Just a raw day for many from KC northwards although the farther south you go…it will be better I think with 70s possible towards more south of KC towards Sedalia/Clinton and the Lakes region. In the KC area…let’s go with highs in the mid 50s on the northside to low to mid 60s on the south side ONLY if the sunshine and warm front is far enough north.

Sunday: We should, in time surge into the warm sector with steady or even rising early morning temperatures and the potential for 80s in the afternoon. It should be the better of the two weekend days. IF by chance the front tries and push south again…this forecast will blow up on us and it will be a cooler day.



Discussion:

So much weather drama for tomorrow with a front that will be close to, if not in, the KC Metro area…and that’s why the temperatures tomorrow will be a nightmare to accurately predict. Plus that front may waver northwards in the afternoon allowing some parts of the Metro to try and lurch back into warmer air. So that’s a tricky thing. IF this was the winter it would be a tremendous set-up for freezing mist/drizzle and icy roads.

The front will be a thorn in our side over the weekend…it will try and come north tomorrow…then stall…then perhaps try and come south again on Sunday. Where that renewed southwards push occurs is an issue. The hi-res NAM has this happening right on top of KC…threatening the warm-up Sunday afternoon north of KC…while the NAM model has the front essentially near St Joe Sunday…allowing the KC area and southwards to firmly be in the warm and more humid air.

The hi res NAM illustrates our issue…

First tomorrow…note that north and south difference

Then Sunday…

What do we glean from this? That areas north of US 36 are in the cool air ALL weekend

Areas south of US 50 towards MO 2 and KS 68 highways are more in the warm air for the vast majority of the weekend.

Now let’s run with the assumption that the KC and south region lurches into the warm and more humid air Sunday.

The cooler air will just be sitting somewhere not far away towards the north and northwest of KC. On Monday a weak surface low will travel along the path of the near stationary front and potentially help push the front back southwards so that we dip BACK into the cooler air for about 12-18 hours into Tuesday AM. There could actually even be some storms/showers with that transition later Monday.

Then the front sort of washes out Tuesday AM and we start a renewed push into the warm and humid air for Tuesday into Wednesday as we again wait and see IF we can get another front into the area.

The warmer air will eventually win this air mass tussle for at least a few days next week. No records…at least during the daytime…but with a lot more wind, especially Wednesday…I may need to refer to some warm low temperature records in KC.

With all this happening…you would think that we could get some decent rain in the region..again it’s becoming an issue for many…and this month hasn’t been overly helpful over the past few weeks at least.

Oh by the way…MT and I were just looking at this…notice the “hole” or void of accumulated moisture over the last year around the KC region…farther north…OK…farther south…OK. Just weird.

Fall is out there for sure…and winter is too…up towards the Black Hills of SD.

Terry Brock has our feature photo from Norborne, MO towards the east of KC in Carroll County.

Joe

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