Joe’s Weather Blog: Heavy rain signals (TUE-10/2)
Good Tuesday morning…I’m actually on vacation for the next 10 days or so but with the weather still being interesting around these parts…I’ll get out a few more blogs while I can. This morning we have a stationary front that has moved into the Downtown area from the north…this front will retreat quickly northwards later today and we’ll once again go into the warmer and humid air mass. While no record highs are likely tomorrow…we will be toasty and VERY windy! Then a cold front will come into play tomorrow night…and that means rain chances…and it’s the start of a multi day period of various rain chances (finally).
Today: Becoming partly cloudy and muggier again. Highs into the 80s
Tonight: Muggy and getting windier. Lows near 70°
Wednesday: Hot bu October standards…sort of July-like with gusty winds to 45 MPH possible. Highs well into the 80s. Developing Wednesday night rain chances too.
Thursday: Morning showers then lots of clouds and MUCH cooler with highs near 60° or so and that might be a struggle…we may only be in the 50s…so about 30° or more cooler than Wednesday!
Up and down we go…and during the last few days it’s been in response to clouds/sun and a waffling front that will finally be eradicated as the day moves along.
Last night the cooler air pressed into parts of the Metro. This was talked about over the weekend. The front is basically cutting KC in half this morning but is starting to slowly lift back northwards as I type this.
It will pop northwards today…once again putting the region into the muggy and warmer air as the sunshine should continue to make a bigger appearance as the day unfolds.
Here is the morning visible satellite picture via NEXLAB and note the darker coloring towards the south of KC…just south of the Metro from Miami County eastwards…this is the clear weather which means sunshine which will help to erode the clouds in the Metro…they’re not overly thick…and allow the sunshine to spread farther and farther north over the next few hours. As a matter of fact…I’m seeing that in my backyard right now.
The HRRR model has this idea…for the KCI area as the day unfolds…look at the temperature line…
Low>mid 80s seems about right.
Tomorrow…it will be hotter for one more day…as we surge to near 90° in some areas…with a LOT of wind. I want to show you the winds a few thousand feet off the ground for tomorrow PM…via Pivotal Weather
Those are 35-40 kt winds…which equates to about 40+ MPH winds at that level…with all the wind churning the air…those winds will mix down and hence the reason I’m expecting 35-45 MPH gusts tomorrow assuming we have the sunshine.
Then tomorrow evening a cold front will push into the region…this front will be seasonably strong. Here is the 10PM forecast map.
At least some rain/scattered showers/storms should move through later tomorrow night into early Thursday.
The issue is the front is rather shallow…in other words the cold air is only a few thousand feet thick so warm and humid air will override the front into the middle part of the day Thursday (at least) and as a result of the lift that generates..additional rains are likely in areas. This means that the surface front is down towards I-44 Thursday afternoon…wind above that front are basically from the SE/S and we may have a rather gray and chilly day. There could be thin spots in the clouds in the afternoon BUT we may be setting the stage for a day with highs only in the 50s or so…a noted departure from Wednesday’s near 90°
Then that front towards I-44 will start retreating northwards as a warm front on Friday. Will it again get this far northwards though? Friday conundrum again. IF so…we pop to near 80°…IF NOT we stay coolish again with a low gray overcast likely.
Then another cold front comes in early Saturday…
This is where things get more interesting…and somewhat dependent on whether or not we are warm again on Friday…
The Saturday front will move towards the Lakes region and slow to a crawl. As this occurs various weak(!) to almost non-existent waves will ride from the SW to the NE through the Plains. IF there is something that can get some additional rains going with a front lurking towards the south of KC…that could do it…but we need some actual waves for anything decent to fall.
There will be quite a bit of atmospheric moisture around though…especially during the 1st part of the day Saturday…so I’m somewhat hopeful that something better than we’ve seen lately could occur to start the weekend off.
Take a look at that atmospheric moisture forecast to be available via NEXLAB. This goes out about 5 day or so off the GFS model and shows some pretty thick juicy air waiting to be tapped.
So what does that mean? Well anything that comes along to create rain has a lot of fuel to create heavy rains…and that’s important in the big picture because over the weekend, because of the front in the region…and then towards the middle of next week because of better waves coming into the Plains in the SW>NE flow of air aloft…we should be set-up for some significant rains. It won’t rain every day…but some bigger rains could be an issue Wednesday perhaps of next week.
So several opportunities to pick up pond filling rains ahead.
Note the green/blue bars in the graph below…
Blue bars represent the operational EURO and the green bars are the average of the ensembles (this is significant btw).
4″ totals on the ensembles are a strong indicator over the next 10 days that something big and widespread is possible and increasingly likely.
The GFS and it’s various member runs also are VERY bullish (typically its a wetter model overall though).
The lowest total in the next 10 days is around 3″ with many of the ensemble runs showing 4-5″ totals.
Again an impressive signal.
Our feature photo comes from Ottawa, KS and Diane Caryl