Joe’s Weather Blog: My goodness all the rain (MON-10/8)

Good Monday to you…our drought eradicating rains continue to move through the region with flooding rains an ongoing issue this morning. Areas off to the SE of KC…I know you haven’t had as much…but it’s eventually going to come down like crazy there…especially later tomorrow into early Wednesday. For the KC area…amounts of 5-11″ have fallen over the past week and more is coming.  Since everything started late on the 3rd…we’ve had over 7″ rain at KCI Airport. Others have had more. Meanwhile Sedalia has had less than 1.5″ in that same time period.

The heaviest rain has been co-located where the worst of the drought was. If I was working this morning I would create a graphic showing this. So ponds and lakes that were low…are now getting filled…and in a big kind of way. Flooding has mostly been in the usual spots so far this morning and a Flash Flood Warning continues into the late morning hours.



Forecast:

Today: Rain will taper off as the day moves along. Some isolated new storms may pop later this afternoon. Highs should warm up well into the 70s to near 80°. Muggy too.

Tonight: Additional showers/storms possible although perhaps not with the coverage of last night’s activity. With that said some locally heavy rains are possible again. Lows in the 60s

Tuesday: Off and on rains are possible in the day with increased heavy rains likely Tuesday evening and overnight as a cold front finally works through the area. This will sweep away the moisture and the rain before rush hour Wednesday. Highs again well into the 70s. Worth mentioning that there may be some severe weather Tuesday evening IF we’re unstable enough.

Wednesday: Some breaks in the clouds and chillier with highs in the 50s



Discussion:

I think the doppler indicated rain totals say it all this morning…

 

And those totals seem low compared to reality. The map above has data from about 7PM on the 3rd through today.

Rain gauges though in JOCO, KS show much higher totals via StormWatch.

The lowest total that I could quickly find over the last week(!) is about 6″ while the highest is over 11.3″ in the SE part of the county.

That is a lot of rain! This is something that hasn’t happened in quite some time. Perhaps going back to the flooding episodes of 2017.

Note though on the radar rain total that I started with…the area that has “missed” on the beefiest totals…that would be towards the Clinton and Sedalia region.

And we’re not done…

A deep western trough will lift out towards the western Plains over the next 36 hours…until that passes into the upper Midwest later Tuesday and Wednesday…we have rain chances. The atmosphere remains loaded with moisture and for the KC region will remain loaded for bear through early Wednesday. Once that moves out..we’ll start drying out for a few days.

A great way of visualizing this would be looking back 24 hours and you can see the sharp and deep “U” shape in the western US…then comparing it to what the data shows this morning…note the LACK of movement or change.

Use the slider bar…move it RIGHT to see yesterday and LEFT to see today.

With the KC region in a persistent and VERY moist SSW flow aloft…disturbances that come up the I-35 corridor will create more rain and because there is so much moisture in the atmosphere that can be tapped…

Note the 1.5″>almost 2″ of precipitatable water (PW) which indicates deep moisture amounts through the lower and mid part of the atmosphere especially…you get heavy and persistent rains due to the training effect of the storms/heavy rainfall.

Eventually that big western trough is going to split…with one big piece heading into the northern Plains…another chunk of it will linger in the SW…that may be important towards the weekend (more on that in a moment).

So as one piece heads into the upper Midwest it will push a cold front through the region later tomorrow evening.

The map above shows the atmospheric moisture and the surface features (isobars and highs and lows). Note the surface storm in SW IA and a trailing cold front down the state line area. This will mean the end of the rains…but before that happens the threat of additional storms will redevelop.

That will be dependent on the instability that we build up tomorrow. I do get concerned though that with temperatures potentially near 80°…an atmosphere swollen with moisture…a surface low near by…and quite a bit of wind shear available…that we could get strong to severe storms…and yes even the potential for some rotating storms…that brings the issue of a few funnels/tornadoes into play. It’s not really a set-up for long track type things..but something about this set-up and the fact that the clouds will have low bases to begin with later tomorrow bothers me. Perhaps a better set-up for NE KS and/or NW MO…but something that I’m paying attention too at least.

So on Wednesday a much drier and cooler air mass comes in…and there actually may be some frost in parts of the area Thursday AM.

Beyond that…there is a matter of the 2nd part of the splitting trough that I mentioned earlier…remember the part that would be dropping into the SW part of the country? Well there is something else happening in the Pacific Ocean that warrants at least a mention…and that is Hurricane Sergio.

Here is a look at Sergio…it will be in a weakening stage now…

I bring this up because IF the western US trough is splitting and IF that split drops towards the SW part of the country just right…it may capture some of the remnants and the moisture from Sergio and send it towards the SW part of the country. This looks to be VERY possible>likely at this point.

So what happens from there? Well it’s POSSIBLE that the moisture from Sergio flows into the Plains  later Friday and then moves towards the NE towards the KC region towards next weekend. Again just putting this on the table for now

Of other concern is the soon to be hurricane Michael in the Gulf of Mexico that’s strengthening and heading towards the Fl Panhandle region

That should be a big ticket item for the NW part of FL…and there is also concern for additional rains in the Carolinas too which are still flooded out from Florence a few weeks ago.

Our feature photo is from Matthew Reinschmidt who’s rain gauge is about 5 miles west of Kearney, MO. This is the 2nd full gauge he’s emptied out…that’s 12″ of rain there!

Joe

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