Joe’s Weather Blog: Just one winter forecast…(FRI-10/19)

Good afternoon…struggling to get rid of the clouds today and that has kept the temperatures from reaching their full potential. Where there is sunshine well northwest of the KC area (for now), we’re seeing temperatures pop to near 70° this afternoon. Overall the weekend will be somewhat breezy with the coldest morning being on Sunday and temperatures in the afternoon near 60° give or take a few degrees. No active weather is expected through at least Wednesday afternoon. For those who have new grass being established, despite the fact that we’ve had 12″ of rain lately…you actually may need to water those new areas of grass as the top part of the soils are drying out with the dry sunshine we’ve had over the past week.



Forecast:

Tonight: Clearing and cool but seasonal overall with lows in the 40s

Saturday: Sunny/breezy and cool with highs near 60°. North winds of 15-25 MPH

Sunday: Sunny and breezy with highs near 60°. Winds switching towards the SW at 10-20 MPH. Morning lows will be in the upper 20s to around 30°



Discussion:

Not a lot to actively blog about for the next few days…there are indications that our next rain maker may come towards the middle of next week. At this point it doesn’t look like it’s a big deal in terms of the actual totals created. A lot of ups and downs from a temperature standpoint.

NOAA yesterday came out with their winter weather forecast. I HATE the way they do this. Basically it’s a probability thing. The reddest area towards the NW US are where the highest probabilities are of above average temperatures. Where the SE US is in white…that represents “equal chances” of above or below average temperatures. Overall useless in my opinion…saying 50/50 essentially. I hate that!

From a precipitation standpoint (rain and melted snow amounts)…

Wetter than average conditions expected across the southern region of the country into the mid-Atlantic states.

This part of things is pretty much right out of the El Nino playbook. On the subject of El Nino…saw this today.

So in watching the El Nino develop out there…it’s becoming more and more apparent that this will be more of a central Pacific based event. We call that phenomena…El Nino Modiki. Where the warmer (compared to average) are farther west compared to farther east towards the South America coastal region

When one hinges on El Nino as the sole forecast factor…A) bad idea unless El Nino is incredibly strong (1997-98), and even there weird things can still happen. B) when El Nino Modiki develops, like what we’re seeing now…and thousands of miles farther west that something more traditional towards the South America coastline…you can imagine how the weather patterns may be somewhat different.

Take a look at the approximations of average conditions for El Nino Modiki from a temperature standpoint.

See all that “warmth” compared to average across the west and into the NW territories and AK…

Remember the blog on Wednesday when I was talking about the “blob” out in the northern Pacific Ocean (huge region of warmer than average waters)…something that also could help create the western warmth idea and the central/eastern cold thoughts that I’m having. Seems like that’s 2 things that are coming together.

There aren’t any strong precip correlations in the USA except for a dry tendency in parts of the western US…especially towards CA/NV it appears.

By the way…back to the NOAA winter forecast…again not a ton of skill from a precipitation standpoint…at least not over the past few years.

So from a temperature standpoint…here is where we’ve been over the past winters…

For some reason that 2013-14 or ’14-15 “look” is sort of sticking with me. Hey…in the 2013-14 winter we ended up with 26″ of snow. It depends on where the troffing/ridging sets up in the means at least.

A couple of other notes…

Michael continues to impress. So many tragic stories. Another aspect is the deforestation that has occurred in NW FL. So bad that you can see it from space…it’s that large. Look towards NW FL.

Notice how we go from green to a larger brown area…all the way up into GA…that is a lot of defoliation going on…and it’s getting worse as things dry out and fade to brown more and more.

GA may not be getting the attention it deserves but a LOT of the cotton/peanut crop was wiped out there…

Meanwhile back in Florida

Our feature photo comes from Howard Parker just west of Liberty, MO

Not sure about blogs this weekend unless I think of something to write about.

Joe

 

 

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