Joe’s Weather Blog: Front coming in…some rain…and more ups and downs (TUE-10/30)

My laptop fried last night…just out of the blue…hopefully it can be saved. So this blog is on my wife’s computer so bear with me as I’m trying to get all my passwords switched over etc. I’m doing a presentation on Thursday for the Integrated Warning Team (IWT) about how our other partners from NOAA to Emergency Managers can help the broadcast stations get more information to our viewers in a timely fashion. Sure enough that presentation was on the fried laptop. I’m lucky I mailed the shell of it to a friend of mine…so at least I’m able to sort of put it back together again. It’s now backed up on a jump drive ;).



Forecast:

Today: Some rain developing…but this won’t be a lot for the KC area. There may be a few spotty storms towards the southeast of KC. Increasing clouds overall and after a mild start temperatures may start dropping from the north to the south as the afternoon moves along. As I’ve mentioned over the weekend..odds are most are going to see less than 1/4″

Tonight: Clouds and cooler than this morning with lows in the 40s

Wednesday: Variable clouds and seasonable with highs near 55-60°

Thursday: Should be somewhat milder with highs 60-65°. Some AM frost is possible



Discussion:

My last golf league match is today…I hate playing in the rain. Once my grips get wet…I just feel miserable out there. So we’ll see…there is a front coming our way…so here is a look at radar to start the morning.

The HRRR model..a short term model that updates every hour or so…shows how the day may play out. From the KC area southwards…there is a better chance of rain in the region.

and a back up link to the HRRR

The 8AM surface map shows a cold front draped just north of the Metro…this will sag southwards. Interestingly there is an attempt at a dew point surge ahead of the front. Dew points this morning locally are well into the 50s but the 60s dew points aren’t that too far away.

The front will sag into the higher surface dew points and that should enhance some additional rains in the region from KC southwards (especially southwards). There will actually be some instability towards Columbia>Sedalia>Clinton>Pleasanton later this afternoon for the front to work with…again maybe some thunderstorms with that.

The air behind the front, as you can tell by the numbers in white is pretty seasonable for this time of the year…this isn’t really a strong front at all so our weather for the next couple of days will be sort of typical for the fall season. We’ll be fighting the clouds Wednesday…but overall not too bad for the trick or treater’s!

There is actually a rather decent disturbance in the western part of the country…if this was the winter season…this would be interesting to track…

You can sort of see it towards Idaho>southern Nevada.

That wave will be near OKC by Thursday morning then curl towards the northeast into NE MO. For us…just a lot of clouds tomorrow especially.

Then another wave digs in from the NW on Friday…maybe some showers locally…better chances in N MO…and another wave later Saturday…and then another on Tuesday (maybe the strongest one locally).

The end result of all these waves will be some up and down temperatures…with not a lot of rain through the weekend in terms of totals. The system on Tuesday next week may be a bit more fruitful. At least though for the next week or so…amounts should be under 1/3″ for most areas unless some of you get some thunderstorm activity later today.

That’s about it for today…lots asking about the winter forecast. Not a lot to say about that at this point…but I’m seeing some hopeful indications with at least a stormy look to the pattern every so often. Saw this tweet as well. Again El Nino may be a player this winter…how much who knows…also the location of where El Nino is maxing is important to forecasters as well who pay attention to this sort of stuff.

Also notice what’s happening up in AK. The “blob” continues.

Our feature photo comes from @rusowjordan via twitter!


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