Joe’s Weather Blog: Getting into a wetter pattern (FRI-11/2)

Good Friday afternoon…overall a rather typical Friday in the area with a lot of clouds and chilly temperatures. We’re only in the 50-55° range and it appears that Sunday may be very similar to today. There may be an opportunity for us to warm up to start the weekend…but the overall trends are for chillier weather (get the chili recipes ready) into next week with some indications of a pretty substantial punch of colder air later next week.



Forecast:

Tonight: Mainly cloudy and cool but seasonable overall with temperatures in the 40° range.

Saturday: An advancing cold front in the afternoon will start to influence our weather. There may be a few scattered brief showers before 10AM…then a significant part of the day should be dry…followed by increasing rain chances towards later in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures between those rain chances could pop to 60-65°, especially from KC southwards on an increasing SE/S wind…that may get rather gusty.

Sunday: Blustery and chillier again with temperatures in the 50° area depending on the amount of clouds



Discussion:

The satellite loop this afternoon is sort of interesting as you can see a somewhat broad circulation in the clouds across SW IA.

This late Friday afternoon…it’s dropping into far northern MO.

All that cloud cover that is hanging around has not helped the temperatures at all today. Readings have mostly been stuck in the 50s…and the clouds tonight will prevent temperatures from tumbling…plus there is going to be an increase in the higher clouds on top of the lower clouds…you can see that moisture streaming through the western Plains area.

The next main weather maker for the region is coming into the northern Rockies today and you can see it in the upper level moisture channel on the satellite loop.

That disturbance will move into the western Plains tomorrow morning…then through the Plains towards the KC area tomorrow night into Sunday morning. With it comes a cold front..and that front will move through tomorrow night…ushering in the chillier Sunday weather.

Tomorrow afternoon…at around 4PM that disturbance will be in central KS. You can see it a bit clearer by looking at the 500 mb map…this is up towards around 18,000 feet. Notice the dip in the black lines…that is the axis of the “trof” moving through. Ahead of the dip…the air is rising…behind…typically sinking. The sharper the “dip” the more rising/sinking air there typically is.

Rising air promotes clouds…moisture in the lower levels help to create rain when the lift…so as that dip gets towards the area later in the afternoon…with the increasing lift that will be developing…areas of rain will develop towards E KS and move this way. There may even be a few thunderstorms out there as well…especially towards the SE of the I-35 corridor.

Then on Monday another wave comes across the region and that too will give us some rain potential. After the chilly start on Monday though and with initially dry surface air…watch for some of the rain to go into actually saturating the atmosphere and then the drops will fall to the ground. This has all the earmarks of a chilly day coming as rain cools us down and keeps us rather chilly all afternoon long.

Aside from tomorrow…and the amount of mid level cloud cover will go a long ways in determining how warm we can get, there aren’t really too many days of milder weather coming anytime soon it appears. I’d post some additional maps for you but really it’s chilly overall into the middle of November.

A final note…yesterday my friend and former college roomie, Bryan Busby, and I both teamed up on a presentation that I put together. We presented our ideas in a seminar called the Integrated Warning Team. This is a partnership with TV stations…NWS and NOAA forecasters…Emergency Managers and others connected to the weather enterprise…whose main role is to work to communicate the weather more efficiently to our customers…in the world of TV…that’s you!

We teamed up and talked about how our partners can help us in TV more…and one of my driving points was why to we (as an industry and from a government standpoint) have to start using specific accumulations from many days out, mainly in situations that can change drastically. It seems as if there is a race to say a certain number…let’s say 6″. What I find sad though is when forecasters, and in the world of TV there are many…who throw out big numbers…change those big numbers to something else…change again…change again…change again…and then in the end…see I told you so. That doesn’t do me much good really.

Anywho…maybe it resonated…maybe it didn’t. I really mentioned how we need to keep this off social media especially. Some may think I’m off my rocker…and I specifically brought up the big winters of ’09-10 and ’10-11 as winters where it seemed like we were being it by everything…and the storms were well forecast days out. That to me was fine…BUT when things are “messy” as I mentioned which is usually the case in this part of the country…is there any harm to wait another 12 hours or so…or longer?

Just my thoughts.

Of course I bring this up…and sure enough today the models got themselves all worked up into a dander for later next week…Thursday to be precise. Some pretty impressive things were indicated…including historical cold on the EURO model for next Friday. Odds heavily favor that being wrong though…but hey…considering these last few winters have done what these last few winters have done…I guess if you’re a snow-lover…it’s nice to see fantasy storms again to some extent.

Tonya Lohman has the feature photo of the day…Tonya and I had a nice chat yesterday about stuff up in NW MO.

Joe

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