Joe’s Weather Blog: Rain…more rain…and then pretty darn cold (SAT-11/3)

Good afternoon…a blustery Saturday out there as expected and with clouds around the temperatures won’t be able to reach their full potential…if we had full sunshine we would’ve popped to near 70°…but that won’t happen this afternoon. There is a seasonably strong cold front coming our way and that will be the next significant change in the weather overnight into Sunday. Then another wave comes towards us Monday with additional rains likely.



Forecast:

Tonight: Rain developing…maybe a few rumbles with temperatures holding in the 50s this evening then dropping to the 40-45° range by daybreak.

Sunday: Any leftover showers (perhaps moreso in N MO) will fade before 10AM…we’ll be fighting a lot of clouds though and that, combined with chillier air moving through will only allow temperatures to warm to around 50° or so where the clouds are most prevalent…perhaps a few degrees warmer with additional sunshine

Monday: Rain moves back into the area and overall a chilly raw afternoon with temperatures only in the 40s to near 50°



Discussion:

Well the cold front is topic #1 for this afternoon…

The front…and for that matter even the surface low pressure area will come right across the KC region later tonight and then slowly move into north-central MO tomorrow early morning. This slow movement and some moisture wrapping around the storm may keep some rain going across NW and NC MO tomorrow morning for a few hours.

Here is the HRRR model…which is a short term model that goes out (mostly through 18 hours). This will auto-update for you as the afternoon/night moves along.

Also a look at the NWS radar from Pleasant Hill

The bottom line though for tomorrow…is the chillier (but not unusual) air coming into the western Plains today will be sweeping through the area early tomorrow morning..and tomorrow will be a cooler and blustery type day…sort of like Friday actually.

Another wave comes across the area on Monday…I blogged about that yesterday and there are no real changes in the thinking in my opinion. There may be some dry air initially to overcome, but that won’t take that long. So rain will start again sometime later in the morning or afternoon and that will keep temperatures from warming up much at all.

Here is the NAM idea for the rain coming later Monday…in terms of amounts.

The GFS is more bullish with amounts…

I’m expecting anywhere from about 1/10″>1/2″ or so from this on Monday.

Election Day will be blustery and chilly with highs around 50° but overall the weather in MO/KS shouldn’t be too much of an issue…there will be some scattered leftover rain in the morning in eastern/NE MO and perhaps a few light mid-day showers streaking through north central KS into NW MO.

By the way the system moving through the area Monday will likely create a severe weather situation in the SE part of the country. This is typical in November down there and you can get some pretty nasty severe weather outbreaks…and for the SE part of the country a lot of times that will happen overnight.

The Monday storm system will be a catalyst to some bigger changes in the upper levels of the atmosphere as some pretty cold air (even by November standards). I want to show you the 6PM temperatures for western Canada…these are the anomalies…in other words…how far above or below average the 6PM temperatures are.

See that area of 20-30°F below average region in the Alberta area (the purple-blue)? That’s the core of the cold surface air.

It’s associated with building large area of high pressure…that will be coming down into the Plains later in the week and sending our temperatures downwards in a big way into Thursday and Friday.

There are obvious questions for later in the week..and yes I see the elephant in the room regarding the snow portrayal on the GFS model

I will not put out any maps…on the air…or on social media regarding this…with the hopes of getting lots of shares etc. Not from 5-6 freaking days away. I do think this will be an interesting period to watch…if for no other reason to watch the differences that develop within the model data. I’m especially interested in seeing how the GFS model does compared to the soon to be replacement to the GFS model…the FV3 model which in January will “replace” the GFS model. My casual observation is that there isn’t a ton of improvement in reliability here in the Plains with the “new” version. By the way the new version of the model..I believe will carry on the GFS name.

The latest GFS model has accumulating snows…the latest EURO does too..the latest FV3 model does not.

With that said the models are rather consistent in the potential of snow developing in the region. Not surprisingly there may well be issues with how cold the lower part of the atmosphere is for awhile…and of course the surface temperatures may not do accumulating snow chances any help…plus this may be more of a daytime event at least at the onset of the snow as opposed to what happened last month when the snows in N MO came after sunset.

It’s being watched…and we may have quite a bit to talk about this coming week.

Regardless of the snow risk…the cold risk is dramatic I feel for Friday. Depending on the cloud situation Friday morning…we may get very cold…perhaps even record cold…there have actually been some cold mornings in NOV…but for some reason the 9th and 10th of November have record lows of 22° and 19°…which isn’t that cold really I think…and considering what’s coming this way…that record on the 10th is VERY much in jeopardy..and perhaps the 9th record too of 22°. The all-time low for November is 1°

Here are the coldest 11/9 temperatures…this may live another year because we don’t get into the core of the cold on Friday morning because of the cloud potential BUT IF we clear out…this will be doable even with the winds stirring things up a lot and it could actually happen after sunrise on Friday IF the cold air keeps pouring in.

Also of note is the potential for the coldest high temperature record potential on Friday the 9th. That record is 32° set in 2000…

On the 10th (next Saturday) we’ve dropped to 19° 3 times…as recently as 2000…that looks VERY much in jeopardy. IF there is snow on the ground…watch out…especially in N MO.

Here are the coldest all-time lows in November…

The same record cold high of 32° is what’s in the books for the 10th. This happened  times. In 1996…1950…and 1894

We should see moderation later next weekend but the overall pattern has a LOT of below average temperatures on the way for the next 10 days or so.

Our feature photo comes from ‎Jana Holladay Lane up in Parkville

Joe

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s