Joe’s Weather Blog: Another rain coming…then bitterly cold…and what about snow? (SUN-11/4)

Good afternoon. It certainly isn’t the nicest day out there and after some morning showers/drizzle/mist…temperatures will be limited to about a 5° rise today. Not so nice. Rain is coming again Monday and then a couple of decent days (Tuesday will be the best day of the week) followed by some very chilly air by early>mid November standards.



Forecast:

Tonight: Clearing skies and chilly with lows in the 30s towards midnight then starting to creep upwards a few degrees towards daybreak.

Monday: Rain develops near or after daybreak and will linger through lunch or so. Then scattered showers possible into the middle of the afternoon. Cloudy skies with temperatures struggling again. Highs may only be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday: Overall a pretty nice day…partly cloudy and milder with highs well into the 50s to near 60°

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies…cooler with highs in the 45-50° range



Discussion:

Sometimes the most basic of things tell the weather story of the day…in today’s case it’s two-fold. The satellite picture…

and the surface weather map…with the temperatures in RED

Those temperatures are chilly but not unusual for November. The average high is around 60° and the average low is close to 40° for today’s date. So we’ll end the day with a 12AM high of 51° and an afternoon high somewhere in the 46-48° range.

Another system is quickly moving into the Plains tonight and will streak towards the State Line on Monday. As a result…rain chances will be increasing towards or after daybreak. Here is the HRRR model to show this evolution.

This should be a fast moving system and depending on the ending time of the rain..sometime in the early afternoon>mid afternoon..we may be able to warm up to about 50° or so…but we will again be on the struggle bus.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be uneventful with Tuesday being the weather pick day of the week I think.

Cooler air filters into the area on Wednesday.

Then the is the end of the week. No real changes in my thinking in terms of the likely cold air shot…that is still on track. Thursday (regardless of the chance of precip) is chilly to cold…then record lows are possible Friday and Saturday morning. Records now are 22° and 19°. Clouds will have to be watched though for potential impacts to bottoming out. WE may not get to record levels but I think it’s still on the table based on the coldness of the air coming down the pike. I may not forecast those lows tonight though…because IF the cold air isn’t as powerful as what is being shown on the EURO and there’s been a noticeable back track on the EURO to the extremeness of the bitter cold air we won’t get to record low levels but considering we’ve already tanked to 26°  a month or so ago…I still see the potential.

So the cold is set…

Now the snow scenario.

Today’s data isn’t the greatest really with a more suppressed look to the snow. The GFS model has trimmed the significance of the snow in the last few runs…the Canadian model doesn’t look that great either. The EURO does still have an accumulating snow in the area…but it has backed off significantly in terms of the amount of snow it’s cranking out. The FV3 which will be the new GFS model in a couple of more months…still has some accumulating snows in the the region and that model and the EURO are rather similar in terms of the amount of snow it’s cranking out

You can see how the models that are favorable for snow are doing what they’re doing and it’s mainly because of jet stream dynamics.

This is a VERY simplified version of areas of lift in a jet stream.

The part of the jet stream that will be above us is the lower left side of the graphic above. So there will be lift in the atmosphere (unless it’s too far south of KC). Assuming we have moisture…and the atmosphere is saturated enough…it still may be enough for snow production.

There appears to be enough moisture in the mid part of the atmosphere to get flakes to form…and the atmosphere appears cold enough to support snow all the way down to the ground. There is still the issue of the surface temperatures as the snow falls…and when this occurs. Daytime snows are tough to accumulate unless it’s snowing pretty good…at least for the pavement. It’s much easier for snow to stick at night. IF it snows…based on today’s data…the vast majority appears to occur during the day.

Now about the snow fall potential. There is still a decent possibility that all we get is nothing to very little. IF everything is more suppressed…then we won’t get much at all. The data today is sort of split on that aspect.

At this point I’ll look more into the data this afternoon to see if I want to increase the snow risk on Thursday but as to be expected with early to mid November snow risks…this isn’t a slam dunk by any measure

I just looked at the EURO ensembles which are probably the better way of looking at this potential and they do have some sticking snow in the KC region and points south it appears. It’s not a lot but it could still be an issue. So snow is still on the table in my opinion.

Savannah Whitesell has the feature photo of the day…

Joe

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